An interview with Mr. R Sukumar of Kothari Pioneer AMC Ltd.
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Foreword

Capital Ideas Online interviewed Mr. R Sukumar, Portfolio Manager, Kothari Pioneer AMC Limited. The full transcripts of the interview are available below. We hope that you find the same readable, informative and useful. Whilst we would not like to take any responsibility for investment decisions that you may take on the basis of this interview, we would invite any comments that you may find would enrich the quality and perspective of this work. Capital Ideas Online will be regularly bringing you investment ideas from India's money masters.

We would like to thank Mr. Utpal Sheth for the time, energy, enthusiasm and commitment that he has demonstrated. We would be failing if we did not also thank Mr. Navin Aggarwal of Insight Asset Management for all the midnight oil that he so willingly burnt with Chetan and Utpal so as to make the work what it is.

Since the interview was conducted on the 19th of January 2000, the prices of most of the companies that Mr. Sukumar spoke of have fluctuated in the intermittent period. To be fair, we have listed herein below the names of companies along with their prices as on 19 Jan 2000, the date of the interview.

Name of the Company

Price as on 19 Jan 2000

Satyam Computers

2,615.00

Cipla

1,245.00

CRISIL

703.00

HDFC

309.00

Hindustan Lever

2,565.00

The transcripts have been broken down into various sections that have been hyperlinked to enhance readability. Click any of the hyperlinks below to access that part of the transcript.

Investment Philosophy

Superior return on capital in the long run derived from intellectual capital

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Mr. Sukumar, it's a great pleasure to be with you in Chennai. You have had a very successful track record of investing in various sectors and overall in the market. Could you tell us something about your overall investment philosophy?

Mr. SUKUMAR: My investment philosophy is very simple. My objective is to invest in businesses that can generate superior return on capital over a period of time. I think this can come primarily out of intellectual capital mostly in terms of quality of management and depending on the businesses, type of competitive advantages the management can build into a business.

In the case of Infosys, which has been one of my core holdings for a period of time, I think the competitive advantage comes from the ability of the management to develop a team, and act as a team, because IT services business is no rocket science. The ability to deliver a product which is suited to the requirement of the client, understand his requirements, have a fair dealing with the client, timely delivery are all more important. These qualities come out of everyone in the team acting in concert, so there has to be a philosophy of people feeling that they have to deliver value. In the case of Infosys, the quality comes out of the HR policies of the company. Mr. Narayana Murthy has been able to inculcate a feeling of togetherness, a feeling that the wealth is being created for a common pool, not for a single person's pocket and certain quality standards in every department right from delivery to programming to every aspect of the business.

Similarly, depending upon the company, I look at what is going to provide the sustainable competitive advantage, which will allow for some pricing power, and pricing power cannot come without delivering something extra to the client. It might vary depending on the client or it might vary depending on the business.

Mr. CHETAN PAIKH: Mr. Sukumar, you mentioned that intellectual assets are very important in the current context for generating a superior competitive advantage. What about traditional franchises like brands, businesses with very large moat characteristics? Do you think that going forward into the future, they would be able to maintain the durability of their advantage? Do you feel that their fade rates are going to start becoming a lot higher?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Durability will depend on what is being built. If the management works towards building something in the organization that cannot be replicated very easily, obviously the durability of the competitive advantages can be substantially longer than if the management were concentrating only on the current revenues.

In the long run we are all dead

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: In the articulation of your investment philosophy, could you also tell us about what is the kind of time horizon with which you invest?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I typically look at three years. I think three years would be the average. I think shorter than that would not go with this philosophy because transformation cannot come overnight, business cycles are there. Even with good quality management and competitive advantages the market might turn sour for some time. But looking far too longer doesn't fit with the horizon of my investors, I mean they are not looking at 15 years to make money out of the mutual funds' products. That's not the expectation of the investors. So some balance has to be there. If it was just my money, I could look at a 15 years time or if I want to use savings only after that point of time.

Past (bands), present (value) and future (cash flows) determine valuations

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: What are the valuation metrics that you generally consider when timing your purchases with this sort of a time horizon? What would be the valuation metrics that you would consider as important in timing and selecting stocks?

Mr. SUKUMAR: One angle to it is looking at the value you arrive at out of the discounted cash flow method. I always ask one of our internal analysts or external analyst to work a spreadsheet and mail it to me with the basic assumptions put in. So I try to play around with assumptions to find out if the change in assumptions can have a drastic effect on the valuations one way or the other. Therefore, you know what type of things have to happen to maintain a certain price, or how much it can alter due to changes in your assumptions. And how much it can collapse if things were to go the other way i.e. if the projections were not to be met in some aspects of the business.

The other thing is to look at the P/E ratio and try to relate it to the return on capital. Obviously, P/E ratio is related to the return on capital. If the company can generate a superior return on capital, you are willing to pay a premium P/E ratio. That is, you know, a quick way of looking at things. Sometimes, you have to take quick decisions and you don't have the luxury of doing too much of cash flow analysis and things like that. Obviously, when you're looking at P/E ratios, things like accounting policies are more important. If you're looking at cash flow analysis, they are not that important because it's just cash generation you're looking at.

There are a lot of nascent businesses where this type of analysis will not hold good, for example, any analysis with regard to Internet in the Indian situation, where the usage is not very high and the present revenues don't reflect the long-term potential. So you'll have to make some analysis of how big a business it can be at some point of time. You have to relate it to some other existing business. If you visualize a business replicating Hindustan Lever's business at some point of time then, one may consider a Hindustan Lever kind of valuation at that point of time. But this means achieving a growth rate of 15 percent, a margin of 10 percent, a very strong brand and similar dynamics, and finally, similar size.

Or you might want to give a discount because the growth is higher. So you know what type of market value it can come to at that point of time and discount it to the present value. So I think it depends on the situation. Very difficult to say that I will look at only one.

But normally in internal analysis, we start with the history - we look at what has been the band of the various valuation parameters like price earnings, price to cash flow, dividend yield, or enterprise value to revenue or enterprise value to EBIDT. We look at it from the historical perspective, what are the valuation bands, the high and the low, and where we are currently with respect to that, but this is something we'd like to look at.

Discounting depends on the business and management quality

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: In your analysis, do you benchmark the company with comparable competitors and how do you determine the equity risk premium, and the margin of safety that you would want in a given situation? Do you adjust the discount rate or do you use a common cost of capital and then vary the discount?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Adjust the cost of capital, I think. I adjust it entirely on my subjectivity and my feel of the risk factors. I obviously look at what other analysts look at using beta as a measure. But, I would also look at it from a more qualitative aspect viz. the type of management. Thus, I try to factor in all these things - an unknown management and other things would just increase the premium substantially.

Fear is your friend, but quality stocks are forever

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: What are the indications that you utilize for your divestment, for your exit from any stock?

Mr. SUKUMAR: You see, most of the core holdings always remain. I play around with the weightages a little bit when the market is looking at it very optimistically and the stock is trading at the upper end of the valuation. I try to increase weightages a little bit when there is an all round pessimism. I would like to take advantage of that pessimism. If the fundamentals are strong, and if one is patient, but the market is looking only at the next two quarters, then it is worthwhile building a substantial position at that point of time, rather than when everybody wants to buy because it goes "limit up" everyday.

Investing is more of an art than a science

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: But no fixed valuation parameters or fundamental indicators that you use for exit? I mean, you basically go by the quality of the company rather than any fixed pattern?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Yes. When I started out, I used to lay much more emphasis on numbers than what I do today. It is essential to look at all those numbers, but thinking too much about them takes the focus out of the main issue, and you have to get a feel of where the company is heading, you have to get a feel of what the investor expectations are. I think those are crucial - you see, a mismatch between the expectations and where the company is heading is also equally important. Like in the DCF work that you have done, even after you have put in your projections, you don't know. You could have done a DCF for Infosys three years ago at 40 percent and it could have gone awfully wrong. You have to get the feel of the dynamics that are changing and . . .

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: All businesses ultimately will regress towards the mean and all businesses over time would have a certain fade rate. And it's very much your assumption of the fade rates vs. the market's assumption of the fade rates that would determine the investment result. That would, to a large extent, be dependent on your own subjective feeling, your experience.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Since the intellectual capital is such a central pillar of your investment philosophy, could you describe in slightly greater detail what are the parameters that you would use to evaluate intellectual capital and how would you determine the factors of intellectual capital?

Successful investors understand the success factors

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Can I just add a question? Would this also include brands? Would you be classifying brands as intellectual capital? It's a form of intangible capital. It's really the marketing spends which are going towards building a moat. So broadly how does one value any intangible asset?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Yes, I think you have said the right thing about valuing intangibles. I try to look at that when I go for initial meetings to the company. I try to understand what their basic business is all about. I try to tell them to list what are the factors affecting the business and why do they think they're going to be more successful in the business than the competition? After coming back, I think a lot about that. I try to ask myself some questions as also to my colleagues, external analysts and a few other people in the business. I get a feel of the business. Then I try to jot down the essential factors, many of which might prove to be irrelevant.

A management might say that these are the ten important things and we have all of them. But when you think over it and go through the entire process, you know that only two are materially significant, and may be you'll come up with a third factor that the management didn't mention. We try to get a feel of what is going to be essential for the business to grow profitably, since growth in an unprofitable way is not useful for any investor. Once that is there then the next step is to ascertain whether that is true.

If you are looking at Infosys, it is the quality of the lower-level people, their feeling that they are a part of the company, they are also equity shareholders, and that they are going to gain substantially from the quality of the systems that they are going to deliver. If you want to ascertain that then you have to go and meet those people. There is no use just speaking to the managing director or the finance director. You have to be there in the public hall of the SBU where you might meet some of the programmers. I try to do that. I try to go on the field and get a feel of what is happening. Mutual fund investors like me have the luxury of going and meeting all the people. For smaller investors it might not be possible. But there are always short cuts, you have contacts, you know people. They may not be as accurate as you being on the field yourself, but you know that certain people are reliable, and can give you information. You have to use that network to get a feel about it.

Scuttlebutt

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: In the words of Phil Fisher, you would be using scuttlebutt i.e. investigating the company, trying to find out sources of independent information and not strictly relying on the management as to what the business looks like.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think essentially you always need to have some feeling other than what the management is giving you. That is very important. I think that if a person is not careful and if you are only relying on the views of the management, it can be totally wrong. I think there have to be a lot of other sources and it cannot be just by annual reports alone.

Intellectual capital is about thinking intelligently

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Sorry to go back. Can you throw some more light on factors that you consider as part of intellectual capital?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Intellectual capital varies from company to company. Clarity can come out of discussing some examples. In the case of Satyam, it's intellectual capital might be in the form of the management being proactive and concentrating on reusable components to achieve success in the software business instead of developing it for every customer. Then it can tell the customers that Satyam can build your systems faster than others can.

Its ability to think through how the business can be run better, how to deliver additional value to the customer and price the product accordingly. The customer will probably be willing to pay a little more if the system can be delivered faster. So, by having built this component, the company can charge the customer a little more and the customer is also happy because additional value has been delivered to him. This particular component has been developed only once and has probably been put into five or six systems. So the development time and effort for everything is going to go down. The manpower expenses are going to be down. So the costs are down, the revenues are up, and probably the model is becoming more scalable because more customers can be served with the same amount of resources. So you see that this type of thinking and effort has contributed to the intellectual capital.

In the pharmaceutical industry, it can be in the form of R&D and lots of things can come out of getting a feel of the market as well as what are the products that one needs to come up with. It can also be educating the doctors about treating a particular ailment in a particular way, or providing information over the Internet to the medical community and thereby cutting the cost of sending so many medical representatives to give so much of literature to the doctors.

Ships are safe in the harbor, but that's not where they should be

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: In the way that you described the investment philosophy, the intellectual capital was primarily encapsulated in the management quality. What are the parameters that you use to evaluate management quality? And what are the parameters other than this right way of thinking (intellectual capital)?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Let us assume that the integrity is given. It will anyway not be worthwhile to be a long-term investor in a company where you have issues on the integrity of the management. Given that, I think that one important thing is the ability to take the right amount of risk. I think the risk-reward ratio is not very linear. It is a curve where at certain levels of risk, your possible rewards can be very high. But if you go higher than that, you take too much of risk and you probably will get wiped out because other people will take the right amount of risk and create certain formidable barriers. So that is a very important issue. Management should not be totally risk averse. To quote Narayana Murthy, Ships are safe in the harbor, but that's not where they should be. That is a very crucial issue.

The other thing is - what is it that drives the management? Whether it is short-term results and being in the limelight today, or whether they have the vision to say that I want to build up something which is very substantial. Ideally, this should be within my investment horizon. I mean, there's no use betting on a management that wants to develop something over fifty years if I'm going to be a three to five year investor. So that vision has to match with my investment horizon.

By sharing the pie, the overall cake itself can grow faster

The next factor is the concept of sharing the rewards. There has to be a right level of sharing. The management cannot be totally greedy and say that it can't share with the employees or that it will pay the lowest. This doesn't work that way because then you won't motivate them or you won't retain the best people. But, at the same time, if the management only wants to be popular with the employees and the shareholders, and is unreasonable in issuing ESOPs, that can be a cause for concern. After all it is a question of balancing the interests of all the stakeholders. One thing is certain. By sharing the pie, the overall cake itself can grow faster. That is more important. I look at it from that point of view. There is no point in the management giving 25 percent equity in ESOPs when the employees are not bringing anything substantial. I would question them as rigorously as the management that is giving only 2 percent when the employees are doing a lot of things. That is silly. So this is a very important issue with the management today.

The ability to carry people along is very important. If you have to take some long-term bets or medium-term bets, and if you have to go through rough weather, and still want to be popular everyday, then it's very difficult to take some tough decisions. You have to convince people that tough decisions are right. One example is Infosys. They lost the GE account and it was a very tough decision then because it was a very significant client. But without that decision, it would have been very difficult to sustain pricing power.

It's a question of questions

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: In the context of your definition of intellectual capital and management quality resulting in competitive advantage over a period of time, what are the competitive advantages that one can measure in more objective terms?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think there is no predefined yardstick and no independent rating agency who could do this. Let's talk about a company targeting higher value added work or something. One can look at per head revenues to see whether it reflects what they are saying. Or you tell them to explain why they believe they are doing something exceptional. If Dr. Reddy is speaking about high quality R&D and claims they have some of the best scientists and they have some of the best facilities, it is probably worthwhile going and seeing it firsthand. When we interact with them, we usually try to read some journals to find whether what they are doing is contemporary. We also try to speak to others in the same field and evaluate if they are really well regarded in the particular community. It's just a question of just asking more questions and something usually comes out at the end of it.

Value addition and branding lead to pricing power

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: The last element of your investment philosophy was how the competitive advantage gets reflected in pricing power. Could you elaborate your perception of pricing power and how you evaluate pricing power in companies?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Pricing power must be viewed differently in consumer markets and differently in the business markets.

In the business market, evaluation of particular products or services is more objective by the buyer. So he has more tools to analyze and probably more motivation to analyze since the absolute value he is paying for could be pretty high, as distinct from a consumer market situation where it's more of an impulse and trend and style drive a particular customer. So, in the industrial scenario, the pricing power will depend on track record. So, track record is going to be very important. If a particular person has to have a track record of delivery, good quality product and services, and adhering to time schedules is important.

For example, let us say Maruti has two suppliers. And both of them are going to supply the same component to Maruti. One supplier says "At my cost I will connect my computer system to your network. You can let me know when you have such and such level of inventory and I can deliver the requisition within so many days". He tries to build something extra for the client for which he doesn't mind paying a little more since he can also save from that proposition. So these kind of situations develop. It is not necessarily related to the product alone but the bundle of value addition that you're going to do for your customer. So that is going to be important. Obviously, this is where the intellectual element comes in. Whether you're thinking of yourself as only a supplier of that particular thing or whether you're going to see how you can add value and then share a part of that value addition. So these types of things are going to be very important in an industrial situation and sometimes because of that the pricing power can be enormous.

I think it is very easy to find lots of examples in software where by adding a little more value, you can have much more pricing power. Obviously the rule that is being applied to Maruti cannot be that drastically different.

In the consumer market it is question of building the right perception of the product, what we define as branding. The key competitive advantage here is the perception differential that can be created by spending a particular amount of money. It is not correct to say that a company that spends more on advertising probably has greater brand power. It depends on how much you can get out of that advertising buck that you have spent. Obviously, organizations like HLL will get better results as they get up to 30 to 40 percent more media for the same amount of money. This is a very serious competitive advantage because not only have they got a brand, but also they spend far lesser than competitors for additional brand perception. That can make a lot of difference.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: The value addition that you're talking about is basically to avoid commoditization of any form. You go up, you try to avoid, you differentiate yourself and try to not only . . .

Mr. SUKUMAR: Differentiate is one factor. I feel we are living in a tough world and you have to deliver that extra value. This extra value may not necessarily be in the core product but in the way it is delivered or in the time it is delivered, or the place where it is delivered or in the information relating to the product.

Consistency and conviction lead to success

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Let me ask a question that you would usually be asking a company's management. What are the Key Success Factors in the asset management business?

Mr. SUKUMAR: The most important factor is doing it logically and coolly and not to over-dramatize things. I think you have to be genuine. What I believe is that we are going to become the number one mutual fund by being the most genuine mutual fund. Because, over a five-year period, people are going to realize who is going to be taking more care of their interests.

It's not going to be the percentage returns year-to-year. I think it's very difficult to be a Superman in this business because you can't call everything right all the time. It is better to have a consistent way of doing things and do things where you have total conviction. I think there is no need to do anything very dramatic.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Play a five-day match instead of a one-day match.

Change is all pervasive - in business strengths, management ratings and investor sophistication

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Market has definitely evolved very rapidly in the recent past and you have been in the equity market for quite some time. Could you chart out how your investment philosophy has evolved over the period that you have been associated with equity markets?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Let me just speak about how the market has evolved. In early '90s, there was nothing like return on capital, there might have been only a few genius investors looking at it at that point of time. The whole market was looking at very simple way of putting every company in the same bracket. You look at the PE ratio, you look at the book values, and you look at the dividend yields. Then multinationals were given a little more. Birla management was given a little less, Tata might be little higher and that's the way you were looking at it. The strength of the businesses were not being factored in at all, return on capital was not a major issue in those days. It was believed that when foreign investors started investing in India and foreign brokerages came in, overnight these things would change. But, unfortunately, they did not change. The foreign investors who started investing at that point of time were so-called emerging market investors who were much used to looking at the same thing in other markets. Even those markets were not evolved like the better markets of US, UK where these issues count for a lot. In the last three or four years, India has probably overtaken most emerging markets in sophistication. I think the investor sophistication has grown very substantially whether it is EVA or comparative advantages or in any models or looking at the contemporary standards of management transparency. I mean India has clearly overtaken most emerging markets in terms of the sophistication and probably ability to price stocks at more realistic levels that reflect longer-term potential. Of course, the best pricing is always higher in bull market because sentiment is very positive and greed takes over.

And similarly in bear markets investors think prices are very high and tend to spend more on the things and once it pays it is easier for a person like me to get more reports. In early 90s when I started in this profession, if I said that I want to spend four days meeting people in only one company, they would have thought that I'm mad. But today you can convince the management that this type of comprehensive research is very important and we are willing to put in, most of the better quality competition, they are willing to put in the resources today.

The one key change that has happened is the greater depth that we are willing to go to in our research. At that time, one analyst probably had to track a hundred companies. But now he can track 20 companies and do more detailed analysis, more spreadsheets, increase sophistication with the help of more automation coming in (e.g. Bloomberg). But in terms of most of the fundamental issues which drive a company, I think the basic belief that you have to bet on good businesses and on the ability of the management to create wealth has not changed very significantly over time. That is still the underlying concept.

The two-theory opinion about the resources we can put in are very different.

Risks are of different hues and shades - Don't paint them all with one brush

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: How do you measure risk in your portfolio? How do you manage the risk in terms of portfolio composition?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I can think of quite a few elements of risk.

  1. Diversification - Obviously diversification can reduce risk up to a certain extent and obviously there are empirical evidences to prove that but 15 to 20 stocks and provide the right amount of diversification for the portfolio. Might be maximum of 15, beyond that you really cannot improve the diversification.

  2. Composition of the portfolio - This is going to be critical. One, how many of them are based on a particular theme? You might be having fifty stocks but if all of them are based on India's industrial production improving very significantly and if that doesn't happen, then all of them are going to be affected. If you're betting your entire portfolio on one theme, then obviously the risk is higher since if that doesn't happen, the portfolio could be affected. There has to be proper balancing.

    If you're betting on IT based on global spending on IT increasing substantially because of the information revolution that is changing the way IT is being used, and if you are betting on consumers based on ability of Indian consumers to spend more, and may be betting on aluminum based on a global recovery pushing up aluminum prices. If you have bet on different angles then your risk is not that high because these sectors are clearly not related. The probability that all the bets would go wrong is probably quite minimal, so one has to look at diversification of those segments.

  3. Quality of the stocks - This also matters much. If you are holding everything on start-ups or unproven companies and hoping that all of them are going to become really big and making big bets on that, that can be quite risky in that it may not happen. If you have a good composition of established businesses that might not go down that much, the risk to the portfolio will be limited. There is also the risk of having high weightages in stocks where trading is low. Obviously, if you are a key determinant of such a stock, one should stop buying when the crowd follows. This happened to one of the bigger investors who had driven some of the smaller stocks, but when he stopped buying, the prices were severely affected.

Liquidity is a solid component of portfolio risk management

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Does liquidity play a major role in your stock selection?

Mr. SUKUMAR: It does play a role because we essentially run open-ended funds. Fortunately all our equity funds have been mostly retail driven. We have an average investor holding probably in the average of 40-50,000 rupees. So we have fortunately not seen huge money going out of the fund even in the worst of the bear markets. But the point is, even if it doesn't happen, one has to be reasonably prepared for that because it is a possibility and you can't say that I thought it wouldn't happen. There has to be at least half of the portfolio in fairly liquid stocks so that you can sell them without seriously affecting the price.

Introspection - the secret of learning

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: How do you evaluate your own performance? What are the parameters that you use to evaluate yourself and say that "yes, I have done a good job or I have done a bad job". How do you determine that for yourself? I do not mean external evaluation of performance but self-evaluation.

Mr. SUKUMAR: One way is looking at the portfolio and benchmarking it to some of the better quality fund managers, or those whom I think are better quality fund managers. But more importantly looking at what are the misses, what are the stocks I have been sort of tracking or I should have tracked but really missed a big move conceptually, with the stock moving very sharply due to fundamentals. I also evaluate mistakes that I made in my assumption as a result of which some stocks are not doing so well, or I might have sold some stock that I should not have sold. Performance with regard to the team plays an important function in the team. Others should provide inputs and I should also be of some value to the rest of the team, otherwise that part is not fulfilled.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Could you share with us any idols that you might have in the investment world - either here or abroad?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I don't have a single idol, but if we take Warren Buffett who doesn't invest in IT stocks. That doesn't mean I will want to go just by his philosophy of not investing in IT stocks. From whatever readings I do, I try to learn whatever good things some people say, and what I think is a good concept. I try to use these ideas, but I don't look at any single person as an idol.

Some learn to forget, whilst others forget to learn

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: What are the weaknesses that you have observed in other investors in your experience in India? Be they professional or be they proprietory.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think the maturity level is still pretty low. In 1995 or 1996 it was a very difficult task to get my closest friends to invest in any fund or equities. But, now that you tell them not to put money, they want to put money in the craziest of the stocks that seem to be moving. And if you try to dissuade them, saying that it doesn't seem to be fundamentally strong, they don't care. I think lots more investor education needs to be done. Equity cult needs to spread in the right sense. Equity cult doesn't mean that everyone comes in, invests in equities and in public issues.

With respect to professional investors, one good trend has been that of a lot of private-sector funds coming in. The overall quality of research is definitely improving. They not only do research, but believe in research. Such a research oriented investment approach has improved in the true sense. In 95-96 everyone did some soul searching. It was a good thing that most people intended to do high quality stuff. But, the disturbing trend in any bull market is that many of them seem to have forgotten the lessons they learnt in that bear phase. My apprehension is that there is a bear phase starting soon. I think probably 75% of them would have made all the same mistakes, which they did in the earlier bull run. So the learning doesn't seem to be happening at the pace at which it should be. But it is happening.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: How important is timing in your overall investment strategy?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Not very important at all.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Stock picking would always have a good element of timing. You have historical valuation bands of parameters like PE, P/BV or P/Sales etc. You try to time stocks by buying and selling them at the boundaries of historical valuation bands after considering other forward-looking and relative approaches to valuation.

Mr. SUKUMAR: For valuation, yes. As I mentioned earlier, when the sentiment is worst and you know the fundamentals are pretty good, that is also in a way timing…

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Because you are buying in a bear market.

Satyam Computers

Infosys - Ingredients of a successful IT services company

MR. UTPAL SHETH: Given that your IT fund has been such a phenomenal performer, which is your best IT pick as of now?

Mr. SUKUMAR: The pick I have been really proud of is Infosys, which has been my holding for a long time. I first bought the share sometime in late 1993 or early 1994. I went and met the company, liked the business, the people and their basic strategy of trying to convert most of the work they were doing for clients to offshore bases. At that point in time they did not have much of infrastructure and most of the consultants were working at the clients sites. But the vision seemed to be very much there and the quality of people was very high.

The other important component was the ability to develop a team, make all team members very comfortable and make them deliver value. The next issue was the ability of the management to take some sort of a calculated risk. This was reflected in their willingness to refuse the GE contract in their desire to go places in the long-term and it clearly proved a point. They also took some risks by developing products. Some of them were successful for some time but over a period of time the product strategy didn't really work well. In spite of the products not doing well, the company was able to increase their rate of growth in the services business so that the overall impact on profits was minimized.

Satyam - Visionary and adaptive top management . . .

MR. UTPAL SHETH: But the stock which has the largest weight in your IT portfolio as of now is Satyam. Could you share with us the investment case for Satyam?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Satyam started out not being perceived as a top-rung IT services company. I think the basic issue was that the founder was not himself an IT professional. So, the basic culture was probably different at that point of time. Transparency was an issue. There were doubts whether the funds that were generated out of the IT business would be used in that business or would they be used for funding other family businesses and other such issues.

To the management's credit, they realized that IT business had a lot of potential and the chairman, Mr. Ramalinga Raju, proved to be a very quick learner. What I like in him is his ability to get a hang of the basic issues involved very fast. In spite of not being an IT professional, he had the vision to put money into things like Satyam Infoway and Vision Compass much ahead of the competition.

. . . and good people even down the order

Competition is speaking about Internet being a key driver at this point of time. Satyam Infoway started a long time ago to help B2B e-commerce either through EDI or through Internet protocol. They have also evolved over a period of time as a top-rung IT services provider and this is clear from the quality of their clients, the quality processes which are in place and the quality of people even at the lower levels. I recently met the head of the internal competency center and other people in people in marketing and was quite satisfied.

I also visited their Vision Compass development center at Bangalore and the type of people I saw, the type of work they have done, and the demonstration of the product clearly brings out the depth in the company built over a period of time. I think that we are not paying much for all these businesses put together.

Attractively valued IT service and product combination

The market cap of Satyam is less than $4 billion against $10 billion for Infosys while Satyam earns half the profits of Infosys. With a mere 2-3 percent dilution, interest cost of Satyam will come down and profits will be 60-70% of Infosys. Besides, Satyam owns around 60 per cent stake in Satyam Infoway. Vision Compass can also generate a lot of value of the company if it becomes a success. That is what makes Satyam a really attractive bet. Though purely as a services company, Infosys would score over Satyam, but as a combination Satyam looks very attractive.

MR. UTPAL SHETH: Do you believe that the Indian IT sector is evolving in a slightly unusual way. The EV to sales that Indian markets are paying for IT service companies are far greater than the EV to sales that U.S. markets are paying for service companies. Also the EV to sales that we are paying for product companies are actually lesser than the EV to sales that the U.S. markets are paying for product companies. In which case is there a very good case for focusing the investment strategies on product IT companies rather than service IT companies at this juncture?

Mr. SUKUMAR: To answer your first question, EV to sales is a derived concept. The main concept is discounted cash flow. You look at a company like Cambridge Technology Partners (CTP), whose revenues per person is in the region of something like $ 200,000 against $40-45,000 for Infosys. While some part of work done by CTP might be in high value added services, I think the vast difference in per head revenue is because they are based in the US and their costs are much higher. That is why you are seeing that Indian companies are able to sustain growth and high margins whereas US IT service companies are facing pressures on the margins.

Higher valuation multiples of Indian IT stocks justified

As the revenue per head is so different for a US versus Indian IT service company, I think it is very unfair to compare their EV to revenues. Besides, lower revenue per head for Indian IT companies also indicates that the ability to grow the businesses is higher. So growth rates of Indian IT companies are going to be higher, margins are higher, and return on capital is higher. Considering all these things, it is natural that PE multiples as well as EV to sales of Indian IT service companies will be different from their US counterparts.

Regarding product companies, the critical issue is how close you are to the market. The way most of the start-up product companies evolve is that you develop some kind of a prototype, go to 4-5 prospective clients, and a lot of interaction is involved in conceptualizing a product. Developing a product in such a far away land, where communication facilities were not good enough, was not easy as you could not see your client. Some time ago, it was even difficult to video-conference with a client. So the inherent barriers to developing products were there and only a few of them have emerged successful in India. But, over a period of time India can also evolve as a supplier of products because the population of Indian IT professionals is increasing and they are increasingly getting more integrated with their counterparts abroad.

Indian product developers are not typically looking at really big products. A company like Visualsoft may be looking at small ideas so that they can make some money out of it, reinvest the money made in to some other product, and develop some components which can be licensed. The valuation will essentially depend upon how big the product can be. If you have something like a BroadVision or a Siebel on hand, which become billion dollar products, then the valuations will look very high on the initial revenue base which is quite small. I think that none of the Indian companies have products that can sell in such large scales and hence the lower EV to sales for Indian product companies.

High initial investments distort financials

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Mr. Sukumar, I have a couple of questions to ask. I must confess I don't know much about this sector. But I have some Bloomberg statistics with me. The return on equity of Satyam has gone down from around 26.5 percent in 97 to 20 percent in 98 and then gone up to 54 percent in 99. So what really happened in 98? It's a bit erratic. The same for return on capital employed number, which is down from 22.5 per cent to 16.5 per cent and then up again to 30.6 per cent. The sales per employee has moved down from Rs.1.3 million in 96 to Rs.0.8 million in 98 and the to Rs.1 million in 99. Could you comment on these numbers?

Mr. SUKUMAR: The low return on capital in the earlier years was due to massive investments in infrastructure and hardware that were bunched together. The infrastructure was a pre-requisite to motivate clients to give projects to be done offshore (in India) rather than at the clinet’s site. As Satyam got more offshore projects the assets were effectively utilized.

Regarding the revenue per employee, I think a lot of business was converted into offshore projects from onsite work, impacting revenues per employee. The margins are better for offshore projects but obviously the revenues are much lower because the costs are much lower. Also, in these years massive recruitment was done and it took time to make them productive.

Products and services converge

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Could you also comment on some of the statements made in the annual report of Satyam – their strategy to put up more development centers in India and their vision to get into products, e-commerce applications and web-enabling tools. Is Satyam morphing itself from a service company to a product company?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think there is some element of convergence between products and services any way. Many of the products, which have been sold on one-time basis, have been converted as services by some of the software companies where they might be charging on a per transaction basis. There might be an applications hosting company, which might be hosting that application, and they might never purchase the rights for the software. They might use it through application hosting companies. Then, components are becoming small type of products where certain components could be licensed to some other people and those components can be bundled either in their products or in the systems.

I think Satyam is going to remain primarily as a services company but there are going to be elements of products coming in. Satyam has some big initiatives like Vision Compass that can be big time products if they click. Then, there are small products and some components that they might be able to license at some point of time. They will also be branding certain types of services. But the character of the business is still services, in spite of some transformation happening in some parts.

Satyam looks very cheap compared to peers

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Satyam Computers owns close to 60 percent of Satyam Infoway and 75 per cent of the present market cap of Satyam can be explained by its holding of Sify alone. Could you comment on this?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I don't want of take Sify valuation per se because it's a little sentimental. A lot of non-resident Indians (NRIs) want to own some Indian stock and they really don't have too many choices available. This pent up demand can lead to some of amount of overvaluation. But having said that, I think Satyam Infoway might really be worth it if they are successful with most of their plans. We have got to give them a fair chance because they have an early movers advantage, their team is pretty good and they have a risk-taking ability. Mr.Ramaraj at the head seems to be very motivated and seems to be driving the company fast.

I think Satyam looks very cheap compared to the rest of the companies in the IT sector. This is not justified considering that they are moving up the value chain in IT services, they have good clientele, they have good processes, and overall their quality of the people is pretty good.

I think their present concern would be on pricing. They are not able to probably go up to the level of Infosys in sustaining pricing or in their ability to increase prices, which probably could be addressed considering the high demand.

Large addressable market for Vision Compass . . .

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: You just said that most product companies in India and most products from India in IT field will probably not be very large sized products. But Vision Compass could be a big one. Would you give us some insight into Dr. Millennium, Vision Compass and Searchpad, how big do you expect these to get, what proportion of Satyam's revenue will they be and what proportion of Satyam's valuation will they ultimately be?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Vision Compass belongs to a product category that is evolving even in the US. It is related to enterprise goal setting and performance measurement. I think some of the agencies expect this category to generate a turnover of over a billion dollars and Satyam would garner a share of 25-30 per cent if they are very successful. But I think these are very rough estimates of analysts because it is an evolving category and is in a very nascent stage. The numbers could be much more or much less and there is also a risk that this product might or might not succeed. If it succeeds, then there is a lot of value. If it doesn't succeed, then the downside is not very high.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: What about Dr. Millennium and Searchpad?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Oh, Dr. Millennium is over as it is Y2K-related. It is similar to Visual-shift product of Visualsoft, which did much better in the marketplace. I don't know much about Searchpad and I'm not factoring it into my projections as such.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Is the GE joint venture a major factor in your projections?

Mr. Sukumar: No, it is not a major joint venture undertaking. My understanding is that it is more to establish a relationship for Satyam to learn that type of business. It is a possibility that Satyam will sell its stake to GE in the same way that they sold their stake in Dun & Bradstreet. But, I have not factored this in any major way in my projections.

. . . and Satyam has an early mover’s advantage

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: In terms of Vision Compass migrating further up to Sigma Compass or something like this, do you have any major expectations there?

Mr. SUKUMAR:It is a possibility. But I would only put some low probability numbers to this at the present point in time. I think the hope is based on the fact that there are not too many products in this space and Satyam has an early mover’s advantage here. And they are beta testing the product with some good quality prestigious clients. If Satyam makes the modifications that they suggest, then these clients can become users of the product right away. This will improve the credibility of the product and also build a revenue base for Satyam.

Highly scalable business model

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: What according to you will be the scalability of the existing Satyam model? So far they have been achieving an average of about hundred percent compounded growth rate in top line. Is that sustainable over a three to five years time horizon?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I look at fifty percent compounded annual growth being sustainable over three years period and probably 45 percent over a five-year period. These are the numbers I would tend to believe are sustainable in today's market considering that today the demand is high. But, there has to be some slowdown at some point of time as the base is getting bigger.

Scalability, in the sense of pure manpower multiplication would be less compared to scalability if they can move up the value chain. They can move up the value chain in many directions. It's not uni-directional. One could be building components, assembling complements, or delivering products. So if there is some amount of reusability built-in for future projects, then there will be a compression of time to the extent that they'll be able to deliver more for the same amount of resources.

The other way to move up the value chain is in terms of the quality of work. If it works on more complex projects, the revenue per employee will be more and margins would be much more compared to very simple projects. Further, as you develop some expertise in a vertical you can get better projects. There might even be some amount of consulting. They cannot become a strategy consultant per se in totality but some elements of strategy consultants in that particular vertical can come in improving the value addition. So if they move in all these directions, scalability can be much more compared to a pure man multiplication exercise that will only make it more difficult to sustain growth rates over a period of time.

Discount to peer group can narrow

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Given that Satyam has very successfully achieved the Y2K transition, do you assign a very high probability that Satyam will be able to achieve this value chain transition?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think there is a high probability that this happens and this is essentially the bet we are taking. Satyam is quoting at a discount to the sector, which implies that the market doesn't believe that Satyam is a high quality play. As a result, the market is giving a multiple of a low quality company to Satyam. If we can find that there is high quality work going on at Satyam and that it is going to compete with the better quality companies to do similar type of work, then the valuations are also going to be similar.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: You mentioned that market is not giving Satyam the value of a high quality company. In relation to Infosys, certainly Satyam is trading at a discount.

Mr. SUKUMAR: Very steep discount...

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Yes, very steep discount. But in relation to...

Mr. SUKUMAR: ... in relation to Wipro, it's a very steep discount, in relation to HCL Technologies also it is trading at a very steep discount. HCL Technologies has equal amount of problems, especially with management having not been very shareholder friendly in the past.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Okay, but Satyam is at a fair valuation vis-a-vis other service providers like Polaris, etc.

Mr. SUKUMAR: In relation to Polaris, might be.

Investment milestones

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: What will be the immediate milestones that you would set out for your investments in Satyam? Clearly the success or failure of Vision Compass would be one, but other than that what other milestones would you set?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think that one of the key drivers would also be Satyam Infoway. There can be a lot of synergies between Satyam Infoway and Satyam itself at some point of time. Satyam Infoway was, at some point, becoming an application hosting company. The applications can be built by Satyam and they can be hosted by Satyam Infoway. Satyam Infoway is very serious about business applications, unlike AOL, which is a consumer-oriented ISP. So in the business space you can provide different type of services to different companies. You can offer networking or a virtual private network for large companies and for small or medium enterprises you can have a set of applications which otherwise the companies might not be able to develop or invest on their own.

At the moment the situation is that there are a lot of possibilities as there are explosive growth opportunities available in various different spaces, most of which are nascent with not too many players competing. If the management team of Satyam has the vision and the abilities, then they should spot some of these spaces and grow big in them.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Would the interest cost reduction be a big potential driver for earnings and therefore making the discount even more steeper in the near future?

Mr. SUKUMAR: In this specific case I don't think it is going to be that critical. When the difference between the return on capital and cost of capital is low, say a spread of only one per cent, then even a one per cent addition implies doubling of the spread and doubling of the economic value addition. But when the difference between return on capital and the cost of the capital is pretty high, that extra one percentage point is not going to be very critical.

Potential downsides

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: What could go wrong with this investment?

Mr. SUKUMAR: There will be risk if there is any regression. When Satyam started off, the management was seen to be shaky in terms of transparency and in the way they were handling business. There was a lot of capital investment and return on capital was very low for some time as there was over-investment in real estate, etc. If the management were to regress again in that direction that could be a major setback.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Would you set clear time frames at which you would like to review this investment call?

Mr. SUKUMAR: With such a big holding, the review happens every week. It's very difficult not to think of what development can happen and what impact it has.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Mr. Sukumar, any other aspect about Satyam that you think we missed?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think an important aspect is that Satyam is based in Hyderabad, which has a lot of supply of IT people as the local government is committed to developing the infrastructure and whatever is required for developing Andhra Pradesh as a major hub for IT. Besides, the vast pool of successful IT entrepreneurs and professionals in US can prove to be very beneficial because they would be closer to a company based in their homeland.

Cipla – Extraordinary Wealth Creation

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Mr. Sukumar, you also manage the Pharma fund for your mutual fund. At the last reporting, Cipla was your largest holding in the Pharma fund. Could you elaborate on the rationale behind this particular stock pick?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Cipla is a company, which has created extraordinary wealth for shareholders over a period of time. This comes from a clear philosophy, understanding of the requirements of the domestic market, ability to manage the operations very tightly, controlling the capital requirements and thereby maintaining a high rate of growth as well as high return on capital.

In future, Cipla can also become successful in categories where they did not have a presence earlier. One of them is ICEs (improved chemical entities), either through biochemistry or through other means where the investment is not as huge as a developing a new chemical entity. The competition in this space is not too high. While many of the new chemical entities are already in the pipeline in some of the big pharmaceutical companies, this is not the case with ICEs.

The skills of Cipla in reverse engineering can also be very useful in catering to the generics market. So for products going off patent in US, Cipla can develop very efficient processes and position themselves as low-cost suppliers. I feel that they could be successful in this over a period of time.

Cipla is already strong in the formulations market where they are in the top league, without any merger. Glaxo and Ranbaxy have resorted to mergers for pushing up their market share. Cipla’s improvement in ranking has been purely out of its own growth, which is commendable.

Huge R&D investments, but details not available

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Cipla plans to spend about Rs.600 million on R&D according to a statement by Dr. Hamied and according to the annual report of the company. Could you tell us something about the pipeline that they will be having then. We believe the focus is going to be on oncology drugs and some chirally researched molecules. So could you tell us something about that?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Very frankly, there is not much information that is coming from the company beyond what is stated in the annual report, where they have talked about ICE’s using chiral chemistry for launching better products in the US and Europe.

Initially, it proved to be a concern to us that the management was not forthcoming in discussing their R&D plans. This was unlike some of the other companies like Ranbaxy and Reddy. These companies are quite transparent, they let you visit their R&D center, meet some of the scientists and all this gives a lot of comfort. But this was not the case with Cipla.

But when I spoke to some scientists working in multinational companies who are well networked with scientists in other companies, I got a lot of comfort that Cipla is in the right direction. The additional comfort is that Dr. Hamied is very cautious in spending money and would invest only if he expects substantial returns. This is unlike some of the other pharma companies, who spend lots of money on new products, on huge projects, put up capacities for various products only to ultimately find that the returns are low. Cipla, on the contrary, has a track record of evaluating where they are putting their money and they ensure that they get adequate returns on investment.

Too much dependence on an industry legend

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: How institutionalized do you think is the R&D process in Cipla? Is it driven by one person's vision, Dr. Hamied's vision, or is it fairly institutionilized, in the sense that without Dr. Hamied, Cipla could still come out with all these products?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Dr. Hamied obviously seems to have a lot of influence and is a key driver. I don’t think Cipla has a very big management team. In fact, the size of the team itself is quite small unlike many other companies, which have many senior and middle managers. I don't think, operationally Dr. Hamied wants to be in control. The fact of the matter is that he is not available on a day-to-day basis, I mean he is not physically present. So obviously he can't control day-to-day matters. There has to be enough independence for the people to do whatever they are doing

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: The reason why I asked the question is that Dr. Hamied was asked once in an interview as to what he would have been if he was not running a pharmaceutical company and he mentioned that he would like to teach science. So I do believe that he has very keen insights into the R&D process. If Dr. Hamied was not to be there in Cipla tomorrow, would Cipla's vision, its initiatives in research and development, its drive towards cost-effectiveness be off? Is that a very big events risk and, if yes, can you can risk a key member of the team not being present?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think there is some event risk compared to a company like Hindustan Lever where there are a lot of professional managers and the risk is very low if one person is not there. While there is some amount of event risk in a company like Cipla, as Dr. Hamied is a key driver, over a period of time Cipla has built a second level. I'm not saying they also have a third and a fourth level. But it is definitely not just a one-man show, though he is still a very strong influence of the direction the company takes.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: They have also mentioned that they are in talks with a foreign genetics player to license out a novel drug delivery system for anti-ulcerant omeprazole. Do you have any idea who the foreign player is?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I don’t know.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: And in your opinion between CFC-free rotahaler, omeprazole NDDS and the anti-aids product, on which would you have the largest expectations?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think for rotahaler, the probability could be a little higher than for others. For licensing, I do not have any clue. And I think the way these things are being handled anywhere in the world, no companies would make concrete announcements till something materializes. However, in some Indian companies, there seems to be a lot of leakage of information and not through any regular channels and people came to know what was really happening. But not in Cipla. And I view it positively that there is no leakage of information because all shareholders seem to be on a even ground instead of some shareholders being privy to the information and most of the other investors not being privy to the information.

Discordance with distribution channel

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: You mentioned a lot of strengths of Cipla. Would you care to comment on any weaknesses that you see in this?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Weakness is clearly, as Chetan asked, the event of a key person leaving because of there is clearly no depth in the management. That is a key weakness.

The other weakness is that Cipla is being a little aggressive on its marketing approach. The company always had early mover’s advantage in launching new products in the local market by undertaking reverse engineering, copying products faster than others and improving their products substantially. But they do not have a very cordial relationship with some of the distribution channels. I don't know whether that can become an issue at some point of time. That can be a strength that can also turn into a weakness at times.

R&D has an important influence on valuations

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Nevertheless, Cipla is still quoting at 9x sales, which is way beyond what most of the MNC Pharma companies are quoting at and certainly way beyond the best of the FMCG companies I know that the sectors are different. But with Pfizer quoting at 2-2.5x sales and Cipla at 9x, the valuation differential is big.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: A related question, what sort of profits, revenues, additional revenues do you expect Cipla to have to justify this sort of a valuation?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I wouldn't really go by sales multiple as the research effort has to get factored into valuation numbers. Besides, one should not just compare the pure domestic sales as some companies are in a position to earn much higher margins due to various things like controlling working capital, maintaining costs and having a better product portfolio that is growing at a faster pace. In such situations the price to sales has to be pretty different across companies. The point is that some amount of benefits arising out of R&D are already in the price. Now if they succeed then the price will be sustainable and if they fail totally, then it would be a big setback to the stock. That is a risk and we are betting that they will come out successful.

R&D model of Cipla is different

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: On a relative scale would you say that the research approach that Dr. Reddy and Ranbaxy have adopted is broader, more institutionalized, and less risky vis-ŕ-vis Cipla?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Very difficult to say whether this is less risky or not. I think Dr. Reddy has put in a great effort and done very well but it's very difficult to compare them as they aren’t exactly the same. Dr. Reddy has invested substantially more on NCEs (new chemical entities). And for NCEs, the revenues can be much more if they materialize. But, if they don't materialize, then you don't make much out of it.

Dr. Reddy proved to be lucky, in that its first product itself passed certain milestones and they were able to get some milestone payments from one or two products. But Cipla's model is different. They are investing substantial sums in ICEs and NCE will probably be done in the second phase as ICEs have a shorter payback period. If you have decided to allocate a certain sum, then you can probably work on more ICEs than NCEs.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Again I have a Bloomberg screen in front of me going forward from '96. In '96 the profit margin was 8 percent odd gone up to about 19 odd percent. What is that attributable to? Could you throw some light as to how they have improved their margins so dramatically in the past few years?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think they were very successful in asthma related products where growth in some of the products was high and there were some pricing changes. They were also pretty successful in some of the exports to less developed countries like South Africa where the margins have been quite high.

Margin expansion in Cipla will be lesser than that of the industry

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: So going forward also you would say that these profit margins...

Mr. SUKUMAR: I wouldn't look at margin expansion in Cipla of the same magnitude as can happen in some of the multinationals.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: But do you feel that it is the sustainable?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think it would sustain at these levels. I think the industry margins as such would expand and Cipla will probably expand a little lesser. So it's not the margin expansion that we're betting on.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Could you comment on the recently announced third-quarter results of Cipla in relation to margin pressures?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Third quarter, just viewed from the numbers’ perspective, seem to be a little disappointing because the top line growth has been only 15 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Compared to the first two quarters of this year too, it has been disappointing. The bottom line growth has also been pretty low. So if we just view the numbers, they are pretty disappointing. But I wouldn't want to judge stock based on one quarters performance as we are taking a much more longer-term view.

Research activity must increase . . .

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: There was a very sharp reduction in other income in Q3. What do you attribute that to? Are you convinced that Cipla will be able to adequately and properly utilize its large hoard of cash that it should be throwing out in the future because once this $15 million investment that you talk about is done...

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think Indian companies, specially Cipla, Reddy and Ranbaxy, would increase their spend on R&D. It makes sense to spend more on R&D because the returns can be very high. In view of the low-cost base, you can get much more out of research spends. And if you come to a milestone payment level you recover your investment and probably even make a profit. At that stage of development, if by any chance you go to higher milestones and the product clicks, then the cash flows could be really very big compared to the current income. So the research activity is going to increase, and that is not going to translate into immediate revenues or profits. I think the stock market is going to factor that in for these types of stocks.

You have pure research companies like Sepracor, which are listed in the US. They have no revenue base and there's no profit. But the market cap is in billions of dollars. Research effort, if it is of high quality, should produce something substantial in the long-term. So there is a haziness in this. It is like the early stage of an Internet investment when don't know exactly how big that space is going to be. So you invest in a combination of every thing to get a lot of mileage out of that.

. . . before the MNCs start poaching scientists

But it is important for pharma companies to spend a lot more at this point of time and get their teams in place. Once we are full-fledged signatories to GATT, then MNCs are going to start up their centers here and there will be more competition for the available pool of scientists. So it is better to get the team in place now and introduce policies required to retain them.

One additional issue that we need to understand about Cipla is that new product launches by the company can slowdown for two or three years. This is because it cannot reverse engineer and reintroduce products for which patents have been filed after 1.1.95 or products to be introduced by their patent holders due to the patent regime. So that could have an effect on the rate of the new product launches.

But, Cipla also has a great opportunity once the original products can be introduced in the market and no one can really copy them. In that case, the rate of those product introductions would increase. There are also a lot of pharma companies who don't have a strong presence in India and it won't be meaningful for them to set up a distribution here for just two or three products. So they would be looking at strong companies to market these products and Cipla could benefit very substantially by introducing those products with a license arrangement. So that is one great opportunity in future.

Need to train the field force

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Related question to that is how do you rate Cipla's field force? It has had trouble with the field force in the past. So how do you rate their field force right now?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I'm told that their field force is pretty good. People tend to believe that the detailing ability of a Pfizer or a Glaxo or a Smithkline Beecham field force is probably higher in terms of quality and their ability to provide inputs. But I think Cipla’s field force quality is good and I think it's a matter of training at this point of time when opportunity to market new products are going to increase. I think they would make that adequate investment to train them. I think that Cipla can make the additional investment in training the field force to make it among the best in the country.

CRISIL - India's Best Rating Company

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: CRISIL has been another stock that you seem to be liking. It has a weight of more than 2 percent in your portfolios. Could you elaborate on this particular stock pick?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I like CRISIL because:

  1. It is the best rating company, and

  2. I think the rating business is going to grow very substantially. The shift is away from the regular banks into financial products like mutual funds, which means a market is being created for debt instruments. And if the issuance of debt instruments is going to be growing very rapidly, then a company like CRISIL will obviously benefit from that.

  3. I think the core rating business accounts for most of the price, and a lot of upside could come from the new initiatives that are taking place.

  • One is that joint venture for the indexes business. That can be a big thing once futures and options are a reality. Passive funds may become pretty big and that can happen in the next five years. So if those things take off, then the index business will start generating revenue through the joint venture.

  • I sense immediate upside in CRISIL's e-commerce initiatives. CRISIL can provide a lot of information through the Web. It can be for smaller investors, or it can be for a host of other people. The tie up with S&P is very useful because Platt's has been very strong in providing commodity prices. If those services can be offered by CRISIL, then they can expand the overall business and the additional investment in content might not be very high. The same content can be formatted differently and presented to different classes of people. So the revenue can increase very substantially over a period of time.

Catalysts in place for higher future growth

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: These factors were true and have been true for quite some time now. But the CRISIL top-line growth rates have been consistently disappointing.

Mr. SUKUMAR: It is essentially because of structural changes in the environment. NBFCs were a dominant portion of the debt instrument market. There were not so many big corporates who were raising debentures. They were approaching the financial institutions and banks in a large manner and it was mostly the NBFCs, which were going for ratings. There were many in number and obviously, many have met a natural death. This affected CRISIL's business in the past, and now, lots of fresh business is coming out of different types of clients in spite of a more competitive scenario. After this change, I think the growth will again accelerate.

Infac Acquisition

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Could you comment on the recent takeover of Infac by CRISIL? How do you see this? I mean, the market has reacted very positively, but what do you see as the positive thing in the Infac takeover, and the synergies that can be achieved?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Infac has been providing industrial reports and CRISIL has also been doing similar reports in a different fashion. So there are synergies, and Infac is a fairly good quality organization. They had a lot of information. They had a customer base and that customer base is something that CRISIL can start off providing information to immediately. CRISIL can provide additional packages like Platt's. If it is a petrochemical company, then they're subscribing to Infac's petrochemical report. CRISIL can say you take the Platt's product and I'll provide you a lot of commodity prices. So these type of synergies are very much there.

The equity cult is also spreading, and lots of investors probably want to find out more about companies from someone who is independent, who is not a broker. So, business reports might be there in broker's Web site too, but they probably would want to look at what is the view of someone who is independent and is not peddling any security. So there CRISIL has some credibility and if the pricing is going to be on a usage basis, I think the customer base can be much wider. The basic barrier is if you say you'll have to pay a few thousands up front. Then it could stop a lot of people. But as and when you access information, you can pay for that. I think this model can make a lot of difference.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Coming back again to Infac. What would happen to the staff considering the fact that intellectual capital of Infac resides in its databases clients and its people? So what is the arrangement that CRISIL has with Infac? Do you have any idea?

Mr. SUKUMAR: No, I don't have any idea.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: . . . especially in the light of the reportedly high turnover of CRISIL staff. There were lots of high-profile resignations that have taken place in the recent months. Do you think that Infac in a way would sort of...

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think Infac wouldn't have any impact on staff turnover per se. I think turnover was a function of the opportunities in similar types of industries or sectors, like investment banking or broking. If those guys were to be paying much better, then obviously that is a natural attrition of people. I think now the pay scales in the rating industry, especially in CRISIL, have gone up quite substantially. And I believe they have had good bonuses. Now that stock options have been given so them, the staff turnover per se should reduce.

But yes, I think it is a concern that they have lost a lot of people. Today, talent is available in plenty and in spite of losing talent I think they're still strong. Probably they have better quality people still left as compared to the other rating agencies. So even starting today, with all the new initiatives, I think they can build a wealth of talent.

Net Strategy - www.crisil.com

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: In the net strategy that they recently brought out, how do they compare vis-a-vis other companies that are providing information on the Indian companies on the net? What sort of competitive advantages would CRISIL enjoy. Credibility would definitely be one, but is there any other fee-based sites of this type? How do they compare on pricing, especially if the information on some other sites is available free?

Mr. SUKUMAR: See, I think pricing has to be right. If it is too high obviously, it would put off people. But there are certain other segments. For example, a credit manager in a company wants to give credit to a number of his clients. He wants to fix some limits. Probably he can afford to look at the CRISIL Web site to find out about those type of companies. For these kind of people, I don't think there's anything competing.

It is only for equity investors that we have a lot of sites today. They can go to www.indiainfoline.com or something like www.equitymaster.com or www.walletwatch.com or whatever. But CRISIL has something interesting for the investors. They don't have a lot of analysis there built up. But that will also happen over a period of time. CRISIL obviously also has to compete in the same space. But they already have some content to put up, so that gives them some early mover advantage in addition to the credibility.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: In the net strategy that CRISIL has used, would it cannibalize on any of the older businesses that they have, the offline business that they have? Or will the market expand as a result?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I don't see any cannibalization of the core rating business as the ratings as rating still has to be done for the company. The rating reports now can be put on the net. Any way, not too many people are paying for the rating reports.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: I was thinking of cannibalization in terms of CRIS, the information they are giving on companies, industries and the economy.

Mr. SUKUMAR: They do a lot of projects in CAS. I don't think that too will be cannibalized. It will be the government or a particular PSU or strategy for restructuring capital and things like that. Those are more like consulting jobs which should not get cannibalized.

No clarity on cash deployment

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: The large cash balance, which has been retained on CRISIL’s balance sheet for quite some time, has been one of the factors compromising the return on capital. So far CRISIL has not articulated a very clear position on this. They have said that they will consider buy backs at appropriate prices. Any validation of this position? What are your ideas on how this is compromising stock returns?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think it is a valid issue and it has to be addressed completely. I think they seem to have some thoughts. But, for some reason, they are not willing to come out in the open about that.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Of the three business areas - rating, CRIS and CAS; where do you anticipate the greatest fruit?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think rating would be achieving steady growth from now onwards. I think the other two areas will probably increase. I think to put absolute numbers at this stage is very difficult. But, obviously, they will grow at much higher rates than the rating business over next five years.

The S&P Factor

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: S&P has a 9.6 percent stake as of now. Do you visualize any change in this in the near future, especially given the SEBI regulation on institutions holding stakes in CRISIL?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I would think that it makes sense for S&P to increase its stake. I think, it might not be viable for them to set up a subsidiary for doing rating business in India, considering the cost structure and that CRISIL already has the credibility with Indian fixed income instrument investors. So, CRISIL already has a significant brand equity. That means it is competing with a low-cost producer. So it's better to use its synergy because of the CRISIL brand and use S&P's own brand for giving international rating to international market instruments that are going to be placed elsewhere and use CRISIL's brand name for local purpose.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: The competitive landscape in the rating business has also changed dramatically. I mean the quality of competition that ICRA or CARE could provide to CRISIL without a partner like Moody's and Fitch IBCA respectively was very different from the present state of affairs. Do you see this development as being of any concern for CRISIL?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think one has to assume that anyway the competition is going to be healthy. That it is essential for any company to improve their quality standards and to do better value addition. I think I see that as a positive development. I think it'll improve and I don't see why it's a development that will be adverse in any way. Any way, CRISIL can keep improving its standards.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: I know quarter by quarter results can be very misleading, but I just wanted your comments on the recently released fourth-quarter results of CRISIL. The turnover has not risen very much. But what's happened is that the expenditure has gone up very sharply. Do you have any comments on that?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think it is to do with the compensation structure and lots of bonuses that have been paid. I think the recent past performance has been affected by increase in the cost structure and lack of corresponding increase in revenue because the revival of the industry is still happening and the NBFCs have gone out and I think next year onwards, things should definitely improve.

Smoothening the business cyclicality

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: A question about the core rating business. You said the other businesses are in an investment mode. But if you analyze the last five to eight years' results of CRISIL, even the core rating business has exhibited some cyclicality. Not in the sense that recent revenues have dropped a lot. They had just become flat for three years when the economy was not doing too well, and they just double up on the first signs of an economic upturn. In that sense the valuations that we are assigning to CRISIL today are not reflective of a business that a cyclical. Do you see any paradox there?

Mr. SUKUMAR: The cyclicality will get reduced very substantially in future. As I was mentioning earlier, now there is also a structural issue involved. All the NBFCs are going out, which is, I think, a one time effect. And that type of a cycle might not repeat itself. The infrastructure projects and all those things have not yet come up. So there are many new possibilities even for the rating business. We are in a developing market and the future trend will be very positive.

However, there will be some elements of cyclicality, I mean that is there even in consumer business. Even for HLL, during the worst years obviously it will affect the consumer sentiment. Obviously it won't be affected as much as BPL, but there will be some effect. So I think CRISIL will have some effect, but as you know their products are diversified. Even in the rating business, they have real estate, they have infrastructure projects, they have, you know, core industries, they have a mix of all those things. It won't be so cyclical.

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: Given that CRISIL has kicked off the Internet initiative and is also yet to establish the non-rating business, the CRIS and the CAS, do you see enough management bandwidth as of today in the company to establish both CRIS and CAS businesses? To manage the Internet business right and also to maintain its positioning in the rating business - all simultaneously?

Mr. SUKUMAR: See, they have the resources within. Some organizational changes might be required, I think. Some of the younger people need to be given more responsibilities. So that amount of delegation has to happen. But definitely the resources are there, human resources are very much there to manage all these things.

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: And do they have a dedicated team to take decisions on the Internet business which is essentially different from the offline business in terms of the pricing issues that Chetan talked about? And the delivery mechanism and the advertising and everything you know? Basically do they have an independent business unit or any fresh blood taking care of this business which is essentially different from the offline business?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Exact structure, I don't have an answer to that. I think what is very important about CRISIL is that it is not a capital-intensive business. It is basically the credibility and the quality of the people that are involved which is very essential. So with additional revenue growth, there need not be any substantial capital investment. This is very positive because it will have a positive impact on the net return on capital for the longer-term.

The Valuation Case - Development expenditure of past will drive future growth

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: What would be the valuation case for CRISIL at this price of seven hundred fifty rupees?

Mr. Sukumar: If I'm not mistaken we are looking at an EPS of something like slightly more than Rs.20. So we are looking at more than 30 times earnings. I believe that in the long-term, this company can maintain between 25 and 30 percent earnings growth. Most of the cost increases have happened already, and every increase should catch up from the rating business plus additional growth should come from the non-rating business over a period of time.

They also spend a lot of money on developing products like bond valuation and gilt base and all those things. So the development expenses have already taken place. Not much of revenue has come in because these products are being fine-tuned. They are being marketed. So when they catch up, there can again be increases in profits or margins from these business. So I think they are in an investment phase.

To put it in a simple way, I think they are in an investment phase in most of the non-rating businesses. Rating business has not done too well in the recent past and there's cash expenditure going into all the other areas. So results have not been too good. When the rating business picks up and revenue starts coming in from all the other areas where they have made investments, things will, I'm sure, definitely look better.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: That means the current numbers do not accurately reflect the earning power CRISIL.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think obviously things have not been very good and I think that is one of the reasons why I like it as a long-term investment. I think the organization has the potential, in the core business they are pretty good, the brand equity is pretty strong plus there are other initiatives. I like the initiatives because think they will yield the results in medium-term. So I think that is a good combination.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: You have any price objective on CRISIL? Any target price? One year forward, two years forward.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think it has gone up. After it has gone up, it reflects a fair value from today's context. Obviously it shouldn't go up, else the value equation will not look good in the short-term if it goes up much further. I think in a longer-term, it should grow in tune with the earnings in the 25 to 30 percent bracket.

HDFC - Set to be a financial super-market

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Since your last pick, CRISIL, was catering to the financial sector in this country, I think it would not be inappropriate to look at another exposure that you have to the finance sectors in India, which is HDFC. HDFC has gone from being investors' darling to being a fairly average company to again being in the process of getting more investor attraction. Could you throw more light on the stock?

Mr. SUKUMAR: As most of us know HDFC has been only in one segment of the financial services. It is basically in providing housing finance for individuals as well as corporates. Their first major diversification came when they floated HDFC Bank in a joint venture with Natwest, which is now Chase. And this venture has been very successful.

What is really good about HDFC is that they run their core businesses very well. They are strong in terms of collecting deposits at the lowest possible cost considering their structure. They are also good in the lending part. Then the yields on their portfolios is probably one of the highest because the default ratio is very low, the net yields are very good and their cost structure is very low, I think probably in order of 0.2 percent or so. So the combination of these three make it a fairly attractive proposition.

What has really gone wrong in this stock in the last few years is that because of a provision that the tax breaks were linked to the share capital, HDFC made quite a few issues to take advantage of the tax breaks which has not been very prudent. This had a negative impact on return on net worth which fell quite low, to below 16-17 percent which is probably the cost of equity and now it is going up and I think this year it will have positive spread.

This stock is trading at 1.6 times book or so. In normal circumstances a company which is just earning cost of capital should be trading at book. The reason why HDFC is trading higher than book is because, one, they have hidden investment in HDFC Bank, which itself has a lot of potential.

Brand Power

More important is their brand, which can be very useful with the de-regulation in the financial sector. I think they are going to have mergers with players in insurance over a period of time. And obviously the brand has a lot of value when there will be so many private-sector insurance companies, I think the people are going to go where they believe that the company is going to exist for a long time and will pay up when the money is due. I think HDFC is going to have a very solid advantage here.

They will probably be able to expand their portfolios to other consumer products over a period of time because they have a client base so they cross sell the products. They will be entering mutual fund business, where again their credibility is going to make a lot of difference. The brand equity will make people come to HDFC mutual funds and, all the other things being equal, that is provided their performances in tune with the other better quality players. Considering all these advantages, I think long-term that is a lot of potential in HDFC.

High Quality Assets combined with Low Costs

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Given the shift of deposit cost structures in light of the tax breaks for mutual funds, do you foresee any pressure on the deposits side for HDFC, something similar to what has happened to the banking sector?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Let's look at the mutual funds. Their yield on the portfolio would not be much more than 11.8-11.9 per cent and I think their cost structure would be in order of 2.25-2.5 per cent. I think the yield to the investor is over 10 per cent. Obviously yields would have been higher in the recent past because of the appreciation effect of the bonds in a falling interest rate scenario. But this is the interest, this is the return that a fixed income fund is going to deliver without any changes in its interest rate structure.

HDFC is not uncompetitive because investor has taken some risks coming to a fixed income fund because there can be some element of default which is not factored into the yields we are calculating. Normally, we should look at a provisioning of two percent, at least half a percent even on a good portfolio. But if interest rates were to go up, then the portfolio can be a disastrous one if investors want to take out their money out. But he doesn't have to bother about that with HDFC. So obviously they are not uncompetitive in today's scenario.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Do you foresee an increase in competition for HDFC from commercial banks, which have a lower-cost of capital?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Commercial banks, I don't believe, have a lower-cost of capital. They have some savings deposit, yes but that savings deposit comes with a lot of obligations. The SLR, the CRR are there. Then the priority sector rating is there, and if you factor that in, I think their cost of capital is probably higher than that of HDFC in today's market.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: We talked about net yields true but close to 20 percent plus of capital employed of HDFC is deployed in investments. Lot of these investments are into preference shares and bonds of fairly questionable quality and some amounts are -- not insignificant amounts are also deployed in a lot of equities most of which seem to be selected on an ad hoc basis. Any comments on that?

Mr. SUKUMAR: This clearly seems to be the most important weakness that most investors have discovered about HDFC. I think the management priority is pretty good. I think this is a mistake that they should be correct. And I believe that is being corrected.

Securitization upside

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: But these have persisted for quite a longtime. I mean, yes, the general perception is that management quality is very good and yet the management has not rectified this over a fairly long period of time. Lot of optimism for HDFC is also linked to the insurance porridge, which would be matching of long-term funds on the asset side with long-term funds on the liability side. Given the present regulatory structure the insurance funds would be in a separate subsidiary. Therefore, strictly speaking HDFC's ability to access those long-term funds will still not be significantly enhanced.

Mr. SUKUMAR: Yes, absolutely. I'm not looking at HDFC using those funds. I think if they are -- their was insurance company and the value than it, there's value than it for the parent company. Apart from that I think basic ability to cross sell products for a period of time is probably going to be important. If you're looking at one whole HDFC Bank, HDFC Insurance and HDFC as such and integrating, if not in a legal status but on an operational basis then the synergy are very much there. You can cross sell even financial products. You can probably provide through one Web account access to different financial products, basically they are reporting information. So, I think synergies would be not necessarily in using the funds of the insurance company but....

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: In the absence of securitization and credible mortgages, any growth for HDFC is inherently linked to an expansion of the balance sheet size, unlike the case in most foreign countries for similarly placed players, which means that the scope for improvement in return on capital employed is to that extent limited.

Mr. SUKUMAR: Yes, if it doesn't change clearly from the core business you can't achieve a very high return on capital I think it can be a little more than the cost of capital because of the efficiency but it can't be much, much more in the traditional banking business. So obviously that's why we are looking at upsides coming from the other businesses and of course if there's any change in regulation and they are allowed to securitize which is I think a distinct possibility considering that we are in an evolving market and the government is committed to financial sector reforms and so that is an upside when it happens.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: There is a press report which says that HDFC has finalized plans for the first ever housing receivable securitization deed in the country and this is using the National Housing Bank as a special purpose vehicle to issue pass through certificates. But in the absence of any major foreclosure laws, do you think mass securitization will happen and will HDFC earn fees on securitised portfolios?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I don't see it happening very quickly here of the magnitude to make an impact on the profits or the balance sheet. It will take a long period of time.

Moving in a sure footed fashion

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: You talked about the ability to cross sell which is the universal banking phenomenon that we are talking about. If you compare the progress that ICICI/ICICI Bank has made vis-a-vis the progress that HDFC/HDFC Bank has made, how do see them on a relative basis, not on valuation but on the progress on universal banking.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think the way I think both has gone about it is I think HDFC has gone on a little slower but very sure footed fashion. The facilities that they are supposed to be offering today are operationally on a more solid wicket from the customer point of view, whatever facilities are being offered, the satisfaction levels are high. ICICI has made a lot of announcements and they have a JV with Satyam now which I think is a long-term positive. But on implementation they have not been very good.

For instance, I hold my account with ICICI Bank and, while I'm positive about them in the long term, today there is a big problem. I, for my depository account, get only the incremental transactions. Now if I want to find out what all stocks I have to look at one big file to see what are my personal holdings, which is not very desirable. Companies like every thing integrated, they want access on Web for DP account. So operationally I would say HDFC has been slower in introducing newer products but have done it in a more reliable fashion.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: There is this perpetual question of the asset liability mismatch of HDFC. It accepts short-term deposits but has long term deployment. The reason why I am bringing this issue up is because you know they have come out with a special millennium dividend and they are also simultaneously, I believe, considering an ADR issue. In what context would you put these different plans?

Duration < Maturity

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think paying out and raising money is a natural process because I think the class of investors we are speaking about are not necessarily the same, there are always some investors who are been long-term holders and who are looking at some income out of the investments.

I think what HDFC needs to do over a longer term is probably they need to raise some more of bonds for a period of time. So that will reduce the mismatch but the mismatch is not as much as it appears to be. If you're looking at the duration of the loans, it is much lower than the maturity because it is repaid with equal installments coming on a monthly basis. So the duration is much lower than what the maturity is. On the duration basis, the mismatch is not as severe as it is when you look at it on a maturity basis, where I think it could look very frightening. I think bonds is something that will balance out the mismatch. I think that has to be the strategy.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Related question about foreign direct investment in HDFC by Warburg Pincus and Standard Life. I do not know whether they have increased their involvement but the planning to buy 10 percent - up to 10 percent or 10 percent more than what they already held. I was not very clear because there were many press report on that. I wasn't clear because they were talking about an FDI investment of over fifty percent in HDFC

Mr. SUKUMAR: I'm not up to date on this.

Efficiency is the key

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Also there is an issue of concessional cost of funds and tax breaks both of which may not continue forever for HDFC, which can jeopardize future earning capacity.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think in the long-term perspective, both are not very important as long as it is the same for everyone. I think without all these breaks, HDFC has a competitive advantage today because of their efficiencies on the assets side, the liabilities side and controlling the cost of operations. As a result, the spreads would be decent enough to provide shareholders with the adequate returns.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: On foreign currency borrowings in the balance sheet of HDFC they don't have a very clear hedging policy in place. Do you think that can skew perceptions in a volatile exchange rate environment?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Yes, it is an issue because if we see the type of volatility that we have seen in the early '90s, it will impact HDFC adversely. I think, one is that we have entered an era of stable exchange rate because software exports have been growing, the export composition is quite different today. Oil is not as big percentage of imports, as it used to be. So I don't see too many of those shocks coming. But obviously if they had a better policy it would be good. Also, I think most of the borrowings in the longer term are going to come domestically. So this might not be a big long-term concern. But, yes it a short-term worry.

Moving into the new economy?

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: The HDFC and HDFC Bank integration on operational basis is a issue which you discussed but do you anticipate a legal entity merger to take place in the near future?

Mr. Sukumar: I think it depends on the change in regulations. Today it is probably not conducive because of the regulations. With a change in regulations I don't see any barrier to legal integration.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: HDFC has acquired stakes in two software company and HDFC Bank has acquired a stake in an internet company. Are these investments of a strategic value?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Considering the market cap of HDFC, I don't think there will be any substantial impact of these acquisitions today. I don't see these as being arguments for buying the stock. I don't see any significant bet out of this compared to the value that can be generated out of the new areas that they can enter into.

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: Given the HDFC brand equity in India, don't you think it would have been much better for the share holders of HDFC if it had carried out the insurance business in the same company rather than a joint venture. I appreciate that the joint venture partner is bringing to the table expertise in insurance business but that could have been acquired even otherwise. Don't you see greater synergies with long-term asset and a long-term liability matching because insurance and housing are probably two best asset-liability matches that one can imagine?

Mr. SUKUMAR: The question is whether the expertise can be acquired or I mean it is better to have partner or may be . . .

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: Do you think it would have been better for the shareholders of HDFC if the insurance business was actually carried out within HDFC because insurance is an excellent source of long-term funds and home loans are an excellent deployment for the long-term. So if both of them were done in the same company, would it significantly enhance shareholders value?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I understand that there are synergies and but as of today you would need two different legal entities because the present regulation requires that insurance be carried out of a separate company, which comes under the purview of the Insurance Regulatory Authority. The question is whether HDFC wants entire share capital, which again might not be possible under the current guidelines. So if there are going to be outside share holders then why not a strong player who can bring his experience, add value in terms of systems and be able to provide re-insurance as all insurance companies have to do some re-insurance at various points of time. So I think in the long-term there can be some value added out of having a strong partner in the insurance business as well, because if they can bring expertise in some other areas that HDFC wants to enter into in the long-term that could also be useful.

Value Creation is dependent on future strategies

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: And while you talked earlier about the difference in HDFC and ICICI, in terms of the pace of movement as well as the surety of steps taken, would you like to make a valuation comparison of the two stocks, given that they are both moving towards becoming universal banks?

Mr. SUKUMAR: It is easy to compare ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank because the quality of the assets are similar. But the big question in ICICI is about the quality of their assets. It is widely believed that their stated level of non-performing asset is not the actual level. And we don't know how wide the gap is. ICICI is also now trading at a sharp premium to the adjusted book value. To that extent all the benefits that can come out of investment banking have all got factored in there. It is very difficult to say that it is cheap in today's context purely out of the existing business. I think the value creation is going to be dependent on future strategies rather than what has already happened. Both have their weaknesses and both have their strengths. In terms of being able to successfully get into the newer businesses, it won't be very critical.

The Valuation Case - Call on the huge opportunity in the financial sector

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Could you sum up the valuation case for HDFC at Rs.310?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Yes, it is at around 1.5 times book value. They would have a positive spread from next year in terms of the return on capital being more than the cost of capital. So obviously the fair value will be above the book value. If we assume that that trend will be maintained for the next one or two years and you're looking at discounted EVA, then the current price will be justified. I think the future drivers would be the progress in entering the other areas of financial services where a lot more value can be created.

Hindustan Lever – The right balance for any portfolio

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Mr. Sukumar, given that you are managing the Kothari Pioneer IT fund and this is a fund that has made most of the funds pale in comparison, yet Hindustan Lever is a stock which you are impressed with. This is a contradiction. I am sure you have very good reasons for this. Somebody advised one of their clients to hold Hindustan Lever and not switch to Infosys, which has turned out to be a multi-bagger. In such a scenario what would your call be on stocks like Hindustan Lever?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think it's a good question. Currently, we are in the early stages of the information revolution. If we believe that this is going to bring massive changes to the society and various economies, then obviously the information technology sector is going to create a lot of wealth for investors. This is because it is an agent that is bringing in all the changes. The companies who are directly in the business of creating the innovations, which are bringing the changes, will reap the maximum benefits.

But investors cannot have a portfolio, which is totally imbalanced backing just one sector. They need diversification for the purpose of security and the if they need diversification they need to look at stocks in different sectors and some of them are companies like Hindustan Lever. These stocks are not as exciting as IT companies but their businesses are very strong. They are not really cyclical and the demand for most of these types of products don't come down. So investors need to look at diversifying the portfolio and having such stocks where the risk level is pretty low. I think that is the main reason that we need to look at these type of stocks.

Size does matter

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: In a way, Hindustan Lever has a very balanced portfolio of products. They have these cyclical products like tea and oils, high growth products, personal products, branded staples and so on. What do you think about the prospects of the product-mix and how do you see it changing over time?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think the present mindset on HLL is that they are looking at all types of fast moving consumer goods which they can supply to the Indian consumer. I think they are not wanting to restrain to certain categories like it happens in the developed market where some companies are strong in only certain categories. They have achieved a critical size and I think they are looking at acquiring any business that that they can, I mean any product which can fit into the regular consumption of Indian consumer.

Their basic strength is in product management, running the operations in a very tight manner and with very little capital requirement. Because of their scale, they have a lot of competitive advantages. For example for brand building, for a rupee spent on advertising Hindustan Lever probably can get 30 to 40 percent more media space than competition. Similarly for buying various types of raw materials or packaging materials they have similar type of advantages. So they see the pros of getting into those product categories over a period of time. As a result, the growth potential is really big.

Meeting everyday needs of common people

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Can you comment on some of the recent acquisitions they have made? Like Modern Foods, and the parent is planning to acquire Rossell Industries. They also brought out a new deodorant line. Does it signal anything? They are just consolidating their tea business. I think they are also signaling very strong entry into foods. And deodorants would probably be fitting into the personal products strategy as a growth driver.

Mr. SUKUMAR: Yes, this is the process of consolidation that is happening. I would say these are very small compared to the size of Hindustan Lever and I think the big acquisition is yet to happen. I think it could happen at some point of time and, when it happens, it could add even 5-10 percent to the revenues of Hindustan Lever. Also, I think internal strategic moves, like getting into things like atta which is not a typical Hindustan Lever type of a product is a clear signal that they want to get into all product categories which are fast moving. The idea is clearly to widen the customer base and they are looking at the daily requirements and not necessarily the western type of products, which most Indians might not be able to afford at this point of time. So they want to really penetrate the masses and the penetration is going to lead to growth.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Have the initiatives taken by HLL, like Project Bharat, widened the distribution reach. Do they have any Web strategy?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think their web strategy is essentially on business-to-business e-commerce type of working. It might not even be e-commerce. It would be using the Web to link distributors and other people as one of the key elements in FMCG business is managing the logistics, the inventory and controlling the working capital. Their web strategy is moving in that direction and will give them a lot of competitive advantages. I think some retailers might also be linked through the web so that Hindustan Lever knows which product has moved and what needs to be refurbished and things like that.

Brands in the digital age

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: There have been some reports, may be exaggerated, that brands are dying in the digital age. With the Internet coming in, with very low entry costs, with huge VC financing, people are questioning the longevity of brands. Would you be able to give us some of your thoughts on brands in the Internet age?

Mr. SUKUMAR: It depends on the situation. I wouldn't say that brands are going to die because of the Internet. I think Hindustan Lever is serving a very significant portion of India's population. We are looking at Internet penetrating something like 25 million households by 2004 and Hindustan Lever penetrating let's say 25 percent of the Indian population. So Lever is already reaching out to 10 times the population using Internet. That is the first point.

The second point is that in some product categories like books where the retailing margins are very high, a lot of people want to buy through Internet. When several detergents are going to be available, I don't see people buying it through the net because if you know that a particular detergent is cheaper, then even if you buy it through the net, the product still has to be delivered to you. The overall cost in operating through the net will still be no cheaper. So the context of internet is relevant only in relation to certain product categories.

I think for FMCGs, in an Indian context, the retail margins are not more than 10 percent at the net level and it comes out of a lot of cost savings. So the competition might not have those cost savings and it might not even be able to produce it cheaper. So when there's a lot of cushion available or when people try to use pricing power too much, that is the time when brand strength will reduce because of the Internet. In most of the product categories of Lever, that is not the case.

The most creative minds work here

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: Most of Indian FMCG companies have woken up to the importance of advertising over the last couple of years. Most of them are re-focusing on the pure FMCG business, whether it is Godrej Soaps or Marico or a Dabur. They are all increasing advertising spends. Do you see all this leading to significantly enhanced competition for HLL, which is fighting all of these players in the various product categories?

Mr. SUKUMAR: There is definitely going to be a healthy competition. But what we are saying is that HLL has the competitive advantage. Let us say that Dabur is spending one rupee on trying to promote a hair care product and wants to create a certain brand awareness. As I said earlier, because of HLL's media buying they need to probably spend only two-thirds of that money for creating a similar brand awareness, assuming equal creative abilities on both sides.

Even in terms of market reach, HLL stands out. Further, HLL has some of the best of managers and have the best type of creative minds working for them. Now if they can have better ideas, then they should spend lesser sums to create a similar level of brand awareness. This inequality is probably helping HLL.

But there is room for people like Dabur. They can tap niche areas like ayurvedic products, where Dabur has a stronger name. If HLL created a product in such categories, then HLL’s brand won't be as recognized because people believe that Dabur is something more natural and is more trusted in that particular category.

The competitive advantages of HLL are going to last for at least the next ten years as the competition is still very small. HLL has a fair share of the human talent as well because they have traditionally been attracting the best talent and competition is just starting. They have not tried to attract talent in organized fashion like HLL has been. That also explains why HLL in India is more successful than the rest of the competition.

Its parent, Unilever, is not so successful as HLL. It's dominance is not as much as HLL, which is a clear example of the policy of trying to attract the best talent and retaining them better than the competition. This has proved to be its strength

Thinking global, acting local

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: Some of the businesses of HLL, like ice creams, have witnessed negative free cash flows for quite some time now. While the Unilever group has managed spectacular successes in certain parts of the world in these businesses, do you see HLL reaching the positive free cash flow stage in such businesses in India at least over the next three to five years?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think in three to five years they would definitely reach a stage of positive free cash flows. They had some good competition in ice creams from companies like Amul who have been strong in the dairy business.

But in spite of this, I think HLL is a strong company. They learn from their mistakes over a period of time. I think they will sort out the problems. But I think your question also brings one more issue to the fore, which is that HLL cannot evolve like just an Indian Unilever. It has to have a different identity. And that is why it is looking at totally different categories of products, categories that are more relevant in the context of the Indian market. As long as HLL tries to act Indian, I think it is going to be lot more successful than try be just a launch pad of various Unilever products.

Many Davids against one Goliath

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: The tea price trend has given HLL a lot of leeway in the recent past. The tea business was generating exceptional profits, and these were re-deployed to demolish competition in the personal care area. HLL, given its size, obviously has the ability to shift resources from one product category to another to sustain its earnings. But whenever that tea cycle is adverse what probably happens is HLL's aggressiveness on the other products diminishes. At which point of time it becomes a case of many Davids against one Goliath.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I don't know if that is true in today's context. I think even the Goliath is a combination of several Davids. Now you clearly have different product managers at HLL who are responsible for different product categories. Each one wants to show that, over a period of time, they have grown their business as something very successful and profitable. I think the head of toothpaste at HLL is very proud of the ability to gather so much of market share from a very strong brand like Colgate in such a short span of time. This has not happened on a global scale. Globally such a strong brand like Colgate, which has been in the market for so long and is synonymous with the product itself, has not buckled to a Lever brand, like in India.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Harping on this vulnerability to the tea price cycle, the recent gains in market share by Tata Tea have been very significant and very consistent. And just as you gave the Colgate example, here we have an equivalent example. The initial explanations of the excise modifications notwithstanding, even after the rectification of the excise modifications we have not seen HLL being able to recoup the market share. Would you have any concerns on this?

Mr. SUKUMAR: See, I think the situation is not exactly equivalent to Colgate vs. HLL in the toothpaste market. I think Tata Tea has also been successful in developing a market for packet tea, which was probably not existing earlier. With the launch of a brand like Agni, which was essentially trying to move people into the packet tea category from loose teas, Tata Tea has successfully stemmed the shift away from branded teas. And this could in fact benefit HLL over a period of time as once a consumer starts consuming packaged tea, then HLL’s brand could eventually replace Tata Tea's brands. But yes, Tata Tea has done a very good job. HLL has not done such a good job and I'm sure there is scope for improvement in this particular category.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Is the acquisition of Rossell Industries’ tea gardens signal of a perceived or real competitive disadvantage of HLL vis-a-vis Tata Tea, which has backward integration right up to tea gardens? And if that is the case and that is the direction in which HLL is moving, would it compromise on future returns on capital employed?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I don't know whether this is a total change of strategy. I think it's more a one off case of trying to be equally backward integrated in the tea business. The packaged tea sales of Tata Tea has probably exceeded their total production through their gardens. I think it is going to be a long-term phenomenon that branded players cannot produce their own tea.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: HLL still has a lot of miscellaneous businesses like leather tanning, commodity exports, chemicals and fertilizers. I know that this is a minuscule component in its total size. But would this be of any concern for you as an investor?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think these things have happened when India had an entirely different economic gradient. I think a restructuring is happening, like the swap of the business between Hindustan Lever Chemicals and Hindustan Lever, where they gave their fertilizer business and, in return, took up detergent manufacturing facilities. I think they want to re-structure in line with the global business and others who do not fit in will go out over a period of time.

Best distribution reach in the country

Mr. NAVIN AGARWAL: Could you tell us a little bit about the rural initiatives that HLL has been taking in the recent past and how this, going forward, could be a driver to the top line growth?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think rural initiative has been essentially in terms of distribution. So the distribution pattern in terms of how it is being done varies between rural and urban areas. In urban areas there might be one van going with lets say personal products alone on a particular route and another going for some other category of products as the volumes are there. There might be different distributors for different categories of products. The logistics in rural areas is obviously very different. So HLL has been looking at the cost aspect and how best to distribute in the rural market, what category, what frequency and optimizing all those things. They have increased their reach in a sustained manner, which is good because they are now catering to a larger section of the population.

Large addressable market in foods

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: The food business is where bulk of the incremental growth for HLL would be derived from. By when you think will the food business be self-sustaining?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think food has several categories within it. If you're looking at tea being a food business, obviously it is self-sustaining and I think you're not looking at tea being a part of the food business. You are essentially looking at the packaged ready-to-eat foods. I think they acquired Kissan, which is a reasonable sized business. It's neither too big nor too small. Ice cream is a totally different business requiring a different distribution chain.

In future, it depends on what they want to add and it has to come out of acquisitions at some point of time. This is because it is easier to get something out of acquisitions and build a mass straight away rather than create brands on their own to develop the packaged foods category. I think it's going to take a little while though it's not unlikely to happen in the next two years.

However, the focus is going to be on non-ready-to-eat foods because that is where the bulk of the Indian market is today. And that is where HLL sees a lot of strength and synergies as they have an excellent distribution reach. Some of the new packaged food companies might come to India but will not be able to distribute their products to all part of the country. So I think that HLL will try to focus on the atta and they will take a certain time to grow the market. But, when they have established those products very well, only then will they start acquiring more brands as the markets would be willing to take more ready-to-eat foods.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: If growth in staple food business is the big bet on HLL, then In your opinion would investors be better off with stocks like ITC Agrotech?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think the two stocks are not exactly in the same category. When you're looking at HLL, you're looking at it as a core stock in the portfolio as you see characteristics of stability in it. ITC Agrotech seems to be more like a venture capital investment at this point of time with lot of businesses not doing so well and they are trying to turn them around. So I think we clearly can't have a bet on those type of stocks at the moment.

The valuation case – A bet on India

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: What would be the valuation case for HLL?

Mr. SUKUMAR: Valuation case is –

  1. Return on capital continuing to remain at these levels for the next five years or so.

  2. Growth rate accelerating probably with the increase in the GDP growth rate.

As you have seen that software exports are picking up and that itself can add more than a percentage point to GDP. Further, the new round of liberalization that can still happen will accelerate the rate of growth for other industries. The other thing that Rakesh Mohan has been speaking about, when people migrate from one category to another, you have to look at those parts of the population, how much is getting added to the consumer part of the population and those numbers are pretty good. Lots of people are getting added and if HLL can add a product that is relevant to these people, then that can contribute to the revenue base very substantially. Out of acquisitions they can get a lot of mileage because they can acquire brands cheaper and they can improve the value by additional reach they have, by their management talent they have, or by improved pricing power.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: A related question, the return on capital employed on Hindustan Lever has been increasing very rapidly in the past few years. As you used the words ‘maintaining return on capital’, do you see no further improvement or . . .

Mr. SUKUMAR: I'm not betting on any major increase in future. I think it is a possibility that they can increase it. Already the working capital levels have come to very low levels. I mean there are cases Internet delivery can even result in negative working capital in the business. But I would not really bet on that.

But I think the kickers can come in, for instance from things like reducing the ad budget on toothpaste. Though they have been growing their market share, they have not made much money as they wanted to achieve the No. 1 position in this business. HLL feels that once they have achieved the No.1 position, they can further increase their market share without incurring heavy costs. And at that point, they will start cutting the ad budget. This means that a lot of cash flows and profits can come from this business. When some of the other categories also get out of their investment phase, profits will increase.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: What are the earnings estimates that you see for the year that has passed and the coming years?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I won't comment on this year as the numbers will be out very shortly and I don't think my estimate is going to be much better than what all the self-styled analysts have worked. My view is that the long-term growth is going to be in the region of 25 to 30 percent compounded annually which is pretty good for a consumer company.

If anything can go wrong, it will!

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: We have all seen your excellent performances in the funds you have managed. I'm sure there have been some mishaps on the way too. I think it would be very vital for investors to understand the reasons behind your big successes and the lessons, if any, from any failures, which you think investors, can learn from.

Mr. SUKUMAR: One of the failures so far has been my investment in some of the oil distribution companies like HPCL and BPCL. I saw a lot of value in them and still see a lot of value in them. I see their core business of distribution as a major area where competition cannot easily penetrate because it's not easy to set up a distribution network. The cost of real estate is pretty high now and even if one can buy the real estate and create a market value for it - it might not be easily available at the position one would like to have them. So the barriers to the entry in oil distribution are pretty high. And so I liked these companies plus also for the other strengths they have in terms of refining capacity and efficient operations. But the stock prices of these companies have not really performed in the last three or four years. Though there have been some ups, on a long-term basis, they have under-performed some of the better stocks in the portfolio. The essential issue has been the government policy on dis-investment. Instead of either making a one time total dis-investment to portfolio investors or to direct investors, they have been trying to sell in parcels. This has had a very negative effect on the prices of the stock because whenever it goes up they come up with the proposal to sell some small parcel and the sentiment immediately dampens. So this has been a setback, though I think I did not go wrong in terms of the fundamentals of the company or in terms of what they could achieve financially because they have been showing a successive growth in profits and hefty returns on the net worth. The government policy has proved to be a major setback in terms of stock performance.

One more stock, which is a small cap pick - one of the early picks when I joined this company. It's a company named Premier Instruments or PRICOL. I liked the company because they were a very efficient producer of auto components, basically instrument clusters and oil pumps for two wheelers. They have a tie up with Nippon Denso, which has now become a sort of financial participation. The demand of products seemed to be growing but the company had a setback for two reasons. One is, Maruti was their main buyer of the products. Maruti suddenly changed its policy and wanted to have two equal suppliers of the product. And even though International Instruments, the competitor, was a much less efficient company and probably did not give as much quality as PRICOL, they just started getting a good share of Maruti's business. The partition of the market into Japanese, European and Korean manufacturers also did not help since each car manufacturer wanted to source from a supplier with whom he had a relationship on a global basis. This proved to be pretty negative for PRICOL because the other big players - people like Hyundai and Ford, were not sourcing from PRICOL. This was not because of PRICOL's inability to supply the product but due to other reasons. So the stock has not done too well. It has pretty much languished. I wouldn't say that they under-performed the market so much, but they under-performed good quality portfolios.

Bottom-up tops top-down

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: And the successes...

Mr. SUKUMAR: The best success has been Infosys where I have been an investor for a very long period of time. The stock has really performed because of a combination of the company adopting the right strategies and doing well on the operational front and the IT market itself growing so rapidly and India having competitive advantages. Due to a combination of all these factors the stock has done well, much more than the earnings growth because the P/E ratio of Infosys was probably at market level at some point of time. It is now such a big premium to the market because the whole market is recognizing the growth prospects.

I just wanted to mention banking stocks, just because banking as a sector has not done well. But, if you pick the right stock even in that sector, it will do well. HDFC Bank has been a part of my portfolio. My bet was that there is going to be a restructuring of the banking industry with the efficient ones doing much better than the others. I think efficiency comes in three fronts, efficiency in raising the deposits at low rates and lending at reasonably good rates and also controlling the costs. And when there is a consumer focus, I think the service issue also becomes very important. And in all these things, these people have done very well. The business model seems to be very good because, for every additional branch the investment is very low. This is because most of the computing requirements are taken care of at the back-end and front-office investment is very low. This is a very scalable model. Also the additional capital for opening additional branches is low. Plus distribution can be in the form of ATMs. With their brand power they can introduce a number of other financial products. They can cross-sell financial products, which will be very important in the long run. Their stock is doing very well even though the sector has gone nowhere.

In traditional industries, one of the successes has been Hero Honda - a company that has been growing pretty rapidly, much more than the market. This was due to the superior products, tightly run operations, well-controlled costs, and efficient utilization of capital. It's return on capital is very high compared to the software industry, its growth rate also seem to become comparable to the software industry and it's available at a much cheaper valuation compared to any software stock.

Options on stock options

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: While one can't really argue with the investment case of HLL, I would like to draw you into a debate on one pet issue which is ESOP accounting and IT valuations after factoring in true ESOP accounting. This is a subject on which Chetan has had extensive writings. Given your exposure to the IT sector, I think it'll be very interesting to spend some time on this vital issue.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: BFL Software, to my mind, has made a start in accounting for ESOPs. I differ on two counts with what is generally considered to be conventional wisdom on ESOPs:

  1. The use of a short-term model whilst valuing options, which is the Black-Scholes model which is what US GAAP does. This is not just a question of a dilution of earnings that comes about, but an alternative is given as to where to disclose it - whether it should come into the main body of accounts or in the notes to the accounts.

  2. It's not just a dilution, but the fact that ESOPs are very real costs. Even though they cannot be accurately measured, they need to be put into the Profit & Loss account as an expense. A further issue is that India does not as yet have a derivatives market on which companies can neutralize, through delta hedging or whatever, the stock options that they are writing. And in effect, if a company keeps on issuing stock options on its own rising stock, it is writing a naked call option. Economically, as the share price goes up, the company is making losses. What would be your comments on this? I have had a long discussion with Mr. Mohandas Pai of Infosys on this issue, and I would really like to know your views on the subject.

Mr. SUKUMAR: I broadly agree with you that stock options are an expense. Companies should not look at stock options as a way of giving something free, because there is a cost factor associated with it. It should be more as a way to align the interests of shareholders and employees. It is clearly an expense and it has to be accounted and the shareholders have to be aware of what the expense is. I think the Indian GAAP reporting format has to be modified and made in tune with the reality. They can look at the US GAAP, which is widely accepted, and bring in those changes. I think it needs to be done on a very urgent basis because the market capitalization of the IT sector is very significant portion of the overall market. And this is an expense that should affect valuations. I think SEBI should act so that there is transparency in this respect and all companies report in a fashion where these expenses are pretty clear. That would probably put pressure on companies to issue the right amount of stock options and not just gift them away. The employee should be rewarded for only the amount of value addition that comes from the employee, nothing more - nothing less. That maturity has to come in sooner rather than later.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: If you factor in these costs, and lets assume that the accounting standards will change maybe two years from now or maybe three years from now. Then, would it be fair to say that we're looking at very, very stretched and unsustainable valuations in the IT sector?

Mr. SUKUMAR: One, I think these measures should be made effective immediately. I think we should not wait for two or three years, and hopefully it could be made much earlier than that. What I don't see being really sustainable is, employees getting such a large amount of compensation. Because, if you are looking at an average programmer in Infosys being paid Rs.10 million, I don't think his long-term value addition is going to be that much. So I don't see why someone should be rewarded to that extent. I think the earlier employees probably got a reward. But in the long-term this is not going to happen, and you don't need to reward anyone that high to retain him. So I think the companies will realize, and stock options are not going to cost so much in future as they cost in the past.

Risk-pricing and not re-pricing

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Do you have any concerns about the fact that there are many American companies in the technology sector that have re-priced their options downwards as their stock prices come down. In the context of stretched valuations in the IT sector, if stock prices do fall due to whatever reasons within the next two or three years, do you think that many Indian companies will go ahead and re-price options so as to retain their employees?

Mr. SUKUMAR: I think the right policy is not to re-price options but probably grant fresh options at the prevailing market price. If the employees do something and add value, then obviously it will go up from those levels and employee would be benefited. If they don't do anything significant, then obviously they don't gain anything. I think that could probably happen. I don't think re-pricing is going to be the norm.

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: Once again on behalf of www.capitalideasonline.com I would like to convey our gratitude for spending so much time with us and sharing your thought processes. We appreciate the tremendous amount of time and commitment that you have shown in this very long discussion where you have shared your experiences with us and some of the very valuable thoughts on a wide variety of subjects and companies . . .

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: . . . even in the middle of the night!

Mr. UTPAL SHETH: It's past the middle of the night!!

Mr. SUKUMAR: Not at all, it's my privilege to be associated with such a good effort to get a lot of people enlightened on the subject of equities. I am really happy to be associated with you people and I think some of the questions you were asking were very thought provoking.

Mr. CHETAN PARIKH: Thank you very much.