The Shape of Twentieth Century Economic History
By, J. Bradford DeLong (NBER Working Paper 7602)Cornucopia: The pace of Economic Growth in the Twentieth Century
By, J. Bradford DeLong (NBER Working Paper 7569)A World Out of Balance
J. Bradford DeLong’s two links – "The Shape of Twentieth Century Economic History" and "Cornucopia: The pace of Economic Growth in the Twentieth Century" form the drafts of the first two chapters of a book tentatively titled "The History of the Twentieth Century Economy: Slouching Towards Utopia?" Brilliantly written, they weave together the following five ideas – the history of the twentieth century was overwhelmingly economic history, the unimaginable explosion of material wealth for humankind, technological advances led to tyrannies more brutal than anything before, the uneven pace of growth between countries and the inept management of government in economic affairs. Great reading!
By, Marc Faber - The Gloom, Boom & Doom ReportA LOOK BEHIND THE U.S. SAVINGS RATE CALCULATION
Wealth and income inequity is nothing new; it has existed throughout history. But never before have there been such huge differences in living standards for such a large number of people across the globe, says Marc Faber. The list of global imbalances includes the fact that while in Western industrialized countries equity prices are at record highs, commodity prices on which most developing countries depend for their economic well-being are near record lows (at least inflation adjusted). The U.S. stock market capitalization now exceeds US$13 trillion and accounts for 53% of the world's total stock market capitalization, while it's population at 260 million, accounts for less than 5% of the world's total population.
In this article, Marc Faber brings to the table his understanding of how these imbalances came about and what their impact might be on the global economy in the future. Furthermore, if in the present "new era" economy the laws of reversion to the mean still exist, how will these imbalances eventually be redressed?
Strewn with statistics that encompass the period right down from Year 1 to right up to the Year 1999, this compendious piece sheds more light, on the most pressing issue facing economic policy makers, than any other. No serious investor can afford to miss this article.
This article from ContraryInvestor.com sheds considerable light on how the U.S. savings rate is calculated by the Commerce Department. It's worth looking at how "personal income" and "consumption" - two variables that go into the computation of the savings rate, are defined and how they can be especially distorted in the current market environment. The savings rate numbers confirm that the U.S. economy and the U.S. consumer are more dependent on the health of the U.S. equity market than at any time in its financial history.SPECULATION
The article strongly suggests that should the stock market encounter a serious decline, the U.S. economy may experience one of its worst consumer led recessions in decades.
By Christopher MayerThe Rise and Fall of the Japanese Miracle
Speculators very often have been derided and their actions vilified. Very few understand the role of the speculator and its importance. 'Speculation', by Christopher Mayer enthralls as it educates whilst attempting to provide answers to questions like, "What is speculation?" and "What are the services provided by the speculator?"
By JEFFREY HERBENER
Economic growth requires genuine capital accumulation and not the counterfeit miracle of Keynesian pump priming and deficit financing - the former will lead to genuine economic growth whilst the latter leads to crisis and depressions. Indian policy makers and investors should remember the lessons of the Japanese economy.