Visualizing the Economic Ties between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe
As the situation between Ukraine and Russia continues to unfold, Europe and the U.S. are mulling what effect economic sanctions may have — not only on Russia, but on their own vulnerable economies. The Sherlock Holmes of Accounting: Howard Schilit Explains the Mystery of His Art
Because of his track record in detecting the manipulation of financial results, Howard Schilit has been called the Sherlock Holmes of accounting. Whereas most forensic accountants come in after the fact for the investigation and litigation, Schilit is the rare exception who comes in to detect accounting manipulation before it is widely. The Illusion of 'Investing'
History exhibits a long and deep pool of empirical evidence for thinking that a mean-reverting process dominates price behavior in financial and commodity markets through time. Embracing this idea in real time, however, is devilishly difficult, which helps explain why so many investors find it tough to earn a satisfying return over one or more business cycles. Marketers Look to Channels, Buying Stages When Measuring Content ROI
Content has become a beneficial marketing tool for companies of all sizes looking to engage buyers, collect valuable behavioral data and educate prospects. While content can be a precious asset if used correctly, many marketers are struggling to understand its impact on the company’s overall revenue.The Myth of Resource Efficiency: The Jevons Paradox
'This book is the most comprehensive attempt at dismantling the efficiency myth: it examines the subject from a variety of practical and theoretical perspectives, and while it may leave an unsuspecting reader rather depressed it leaves all of us better prepared to face the reality.'How Inflation Destroys the Wealth of Nations
In this book, Brown deploys his formidable expository skills to argue the thesis that the current crisis and the impending collapse of the EMU (European Monetary Union) are attributable to profound flaws in the original monetary foundations of the euro. These flaws rendered the EMU particularly vulnerable to the asset price inflation virus which was originally unleashed on an unsuspecting world by the Federal Reserve shortly after the euro saw the light of day in 1999.Secular Stagnation and Capital Goods’ Prices
According to Krugman, if the natural rate of interest has become persistently negative—i.e. new capital projects are expected to yield a negative return—then investors will look to existing durable assets like gold or land that yield no less than a 0% return. The prices of these goods will be bid upwards, bubble-like. Instead of laissez faire economics, root values in our shared humanity: column
Know the history of markets to know how we can advance. In its 17th century roots, “free” is not an adjective, but a verb. Before we had what came to be called capitalism, we had mercantilism: merchants enabled to engage in business enterprise when empowered by the monarch. Emerging Market risk and reward
One definition of an emerging-market economy is that its political risks are higher, and its policy credibility lower, than in advanced economies. After the financial crisis, when emerging-market economies continued to grow robustly, that definition seemed obsolete; now, with the recent turbulence in emerging economies driven in part by weaker economic-policy credibility and growing political uncertainty, it seems as relevant as ever.Quest to trigger inflation has failed
With growth low, inflation is needed to reduce debt levels by increasing nominal growth rates above interest costs. Inflation would decrease the value of debt by reducing purchasing power and via currency depreciation, where the debt is held by foreign investors.Howard Marks on alpha and making money
“It used to be easier to make money. If you look at the history of inefficiency, there were markets that people didn’t have access to, there was infrastructure that was lacking and investments that were unknown. Now everyone knows everything about everything,” he says.Can the real Capitalist please stand up?
Adam Smith, the father of capitalism said “Labor was the first price, the original purchase – money that was paid for all things”. And Karl Marx, father of communism said “Capital is dead labor, which, vampire-like, lives only by sucking living labor, and lives the more, the more labor it sucks.”Instead of laissez faire economics, root values in our shared humanity: column
Know the history of markets to know how we can advance.In its 17th century roots, “free” is not an adjective, but a verb. Before we had what came to be called capitalism, we had mercantilism: merchants enabled to engage in business enterprise when empowered by the monarch. Seth Klarman: Investors Downplaying Risk “Never Turns Out Well”
Noting that stock markets have risk and are not guaranteed investments may seem like an obvious notation, but against today’s backdrop of never before witnessed manipulated markets Seth Klarman sagely notes “Someday, financial markets will again decline. Someday, rising stock and bond markets will no longer be government policy.Do You Need Financial Therapy?
If you keep creating concrete financial plans and you're not able to follow through on them, that means there are other issues that need to be tackled before any financial plan can be accurately executed.A most wonderful example of cause and effect
A number of studies have been done over the years trying to work out whether people are insider trading given the specialist knowledge that they have. For example, one such showed that Senators were getting a 12% annual return on their stock portfolios.“Unexpected” Economics
Recessions do not end when the participation rate in the labor force worsens. Increased welfare payments or ease of getting into these programs can reduce the numbers looking for work and thereby reduce the reported unemployment rate. But that cannot produce growth in the economy which depends on production and not transfer payments.Keynesian Stimulus, and Hayek
Keynes’ theory has nothing whatever to do with the size of the government. It is really about the timing of government spending. Keynes thought that against-the-grain fiscal policy could mitigate the business cycle, which he viewed as a natural outgrowth of the wild animal spirits of the market. When the economy is booming — unemployment low and growth strong.Ukraine: Three Views
Further escalation is a possibility, with Ukraine cracking along the obvious ethnic fault lines and the West reacting with measures such as sanctions and visa restrictions. Tit-for-tat follows; gas supplies to the EU are disrupted.Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Do Foreign Profits Explain Elevated Profit Margins? No.
Corporate after-tax profits as a share of GDP, GNP (or even net national product if one wishes to use that number) are steeply above historical norms. This fact can be fully explained by mirror image deficits in household and government saving - a relationship that can be demonstrated across decades of historical evidence.